The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

Canada’s economy is showing signs of improvement. Growth is picking up and inflation is projected to ease gradually from its recent spike. There are still important risks and uncertainties related to the war in the Middle East and US trade policy.

Since the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), global economic prospects have been dented by higher oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. At the same time, the build-out of artificial intelligence (AI) is supporting economic activity in a growing number of countries. Oil prices are still lower than their peak in April but the situation in the Middle East remains volatile. The path for global inflation is highly dependent on how the conflict unfolds.

The US economy is growing at about 2½%, mostly because of strong consumption and booming AI investment. China’s economy is expanding solidly thanks to robust exports. Economic activity in the euro area has been weighed down by high energy prices, but is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year if energy prices come down as anticipated.

The Bank projects global GDP growth will slow to 2¾% in 2026, mostly because of the effects of the Middle East conflict, and recover to around 3¼% in 2027 and 2028.

Financial conditions in Canada have eased since April and global equity markets have been buoyant. US bond yields have risen, while those in Canada are little changed. This differential has contributed to the depreciation of the Canadian dollar.

Canada’s GDP data over the past year was choppy and growth stalled as the economy adjusted to new tariffs, high uncertainty and slower population growth. Labour market conditions have remained soft, reflecting ongoing economic slack. The unemployment rate was 6.5% in June and has hovered in a range of 6½%-7% since the end of 2024. There are clear signs that economic growth has resumed in the second quarter, with growth estimated at 2½%. While this largely reflects the unwinding of temporary factors, sources of economic growth appear to be broadening.

Recent indicators point to continued solid consumer spending. Housing activity has been weak but looks to be stabilizing. Export growth has resumed and is expected to continue to strengthen, albeit on a lower path. Business investment is projected to pick up modestly, boosted in the near term by the oil and gas sector. Although the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement is now subject to annual reviews, more businesses report they are finding ways to navigate through the uncertainty. Government spending also contributes to higher economic activity over the projection.

Following GDP growth of 0.7% in 2026, the Bank projects the economy will grow by 1.8% in both 2027 and 2028. As the recovery proceeds, economic slack will be gradually absorbed.

CPI inflation rose further to 3.2% in May, mainly because of higher gasoline prices linked to the war in the Middle East. Excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2% and measures of core inflation remained close to 2%. Near-term inflation expectations are sensitive to changes in gasoline prices but longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. War-related cost pressures are still working their way through some consumer prices but are being offset by downward pressure on other prices from continued economic slack. CPI inflation is expected to stay elevated in June and then ease gradually in the coming months, returning to around 2% in early 2027, although this forecast is dependent on the path for oil and gasoline prices. Inflation is forecast to average around 2% in 2027 and 2028, albeit with some monthly fluctuations because of base-year effects.

Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate to sustain the economic recovery and bring inflation back to the 2% target, in line with the MPR projections. Uncertainty is still high. Governing Council will continue to assess the strength of the Canadian economy and the outlook for inflation, and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed. The Bank is committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 2, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on October 28, 2026.

This media release is reposted from the Bank of Canada website.

A new RBC poll finds most Canadians believe there is no perfect time to buy, as economic uncertainty, affordability pressures and rate expectations complicate purchase decisions.

 

Most Canadians say there is no perfect time to buy a home, according to a new RBC poll that points to the uncertainty still hanging over the housing market despite some improvement in affordability.

The survey found that 64% of Canadians agree “you can never really know when the right time is to buy a home,” while 73% said economic uncertainty is making it difficult to know when to act.

The results suggest many would-be buyers are still struggling to read the market after several years of sharp rate hikes, elevated home prices and uneven regional conditions. While lower borrowing costs have helped restore some purchasing power, homeownership remains stretched for many households.

RBC’s latest national affordability measure improved to 53% in the first quarter of 2026, its best level in four years. The measure tracks the share of a median household’s pre-tax income needed to cover ownership costs, meaning a lower reading points to improved affordability.

But RBC also cautioned that affordability gains are becoming weaker and less broadly felt across the country, with some markets still seeing ownership costs rise. “Further easing in affordability could get slimmer as price declines taper off, and interest rates have likely passed cyclical lows, limiting reductions in mortgage costs,” the bank said

Buyers see opportunity, but confidence remains weak
Among Canadians who intend to buy a home within the next two years, 45% said now is the right time to buy, compared with 27% of Canadians overall.

But that sense of opportunity is being tempered by uncertainty. Among prospective buyers, 75% said economic uncertainty is making them more cautious, while 72% called it the biggest challenge to buying a home.

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% since December, including at its June decision, but borrowers continue to face mortgage rates well above the ultra-low levels seen earlier in the decade.

RBC’s poll also found that 78% of Canadians believe homeownership requires more sacrifices today than it did for previous generations, while just 28% said they feel confident making homebuying decisions in today’s market.

Other findings from the poll include:

58% of prospective buyers said lower home prices will allow them to buy their first or next home.
54% said lower interest rates will help them enter the market.
53% said there is only a small window to take advantage of lower prices before they rise again.
69% expect to delay major purchases, such as a car or renovations.
62% expect to postpone or scale back vacations.
60% said they need to completely overhaul their spending and saving habits.
53% said they may need to put some retirement savings toward buying a home.
40% of Canadians said they have the information they need to make smart homebuying decisions.

This article was written by the CMT team on July 8, 2026.

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

The conflict in the Middle East is now in its fourth month. The resulting increases in energy prices and disruptions in global supply chains are weighing on global economic growth and pushing up inflation. At the same time, the US administration continues to propose new tariffs and trade policy uncertainty remains elevated.

In the United States, economic growth remains solid, supported by consumption and AI‑related investment. In the euro area, growth is subdued, with higher energy prices weighing on activity. China’s economic growth continues to be supported by strong exports.

Canadian financial conditions have loosened since the April Monetary Policy Report. Global equity markets have been buoyant and bond yields remain volatile. The Canadian dollar has weakened against the US dollar and other currencies.

In Canada, GDP edged down by 0.1% in the first quarter, weaker than expected at the time of the April MPR. Consumer spending grew 1.4% but government spending unexpectedly declined. Housing activity also declined and business investment remained weak. Exports fell while imports rose strongly as inventories were rebuilt. Employment was up in May, but looking through monthly volatility, employment in Canada is little changed since the start of the year. The unemployment rate continues to fluctuate in the 6 ½%-7% range with the most recent reading at 6.6% in May.

Recent data suggests that growth will resume in the second quarter but, even with some rebound, the economy is expected to remain in excess supply.

As expected, CPI inflation rose in April, reaching 2.8%. The increase reflects energy prices, both higher oil prices and the impact of the elimination of the consumer carbon tax falling out of the 12-month rate of inflation. So far, there has been limited evidence of broad-based pass-through of higher energy prices to other consumer prices. Measures of core inflation have moved down to around 2% and the share of CPI components growing above 3% is close to its historical average. Food price inflation moderated but remains high, and shelter inflation continued to slow. With global oil prices still elevated—roughly $10 a barrel above our April MPR assumptions—total inflation is expected to hover around 3% in the near term before easing gradually towards 2%.

Against this overall backdrop, Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 2.25%.  Economic activity in Canada has been weak and uncertainty about US trade policy persists. The conflict in the Middle East is ongoing and oil prices remain elevated. Governing Council is continuing to look through the war’s near-term impact on headline inflation, but will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation. As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed. The Bank is committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 15, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released at the same time.

This release is re-posted from the Bank of Canada website.

Despite strong payment performance, a growing share of borrowers report difficulty keeping up and are cutting back on spending to stay current

Most Canadian homeowners are still meeting their mortgage obligations, but many are doing so under growing financial pressure, cutting back elsewhere to keep up.

True North Mortgage’s 2026 Mortgage Sentiment Survey, released today, found that 83% of Canadians have never missed a mortgage payment, even as borrowing costs rise. More than one-third (36%) of mortgage holders said they found it challenging to keep up with payments over the past year, pointing to mounting pressure on household budgets.

“Even as Canadians face rising household costs — from groceries to credit and potentially higher mortgage payments — homeowners overall remain financially prepared to meet their mortgage obligations,” said CEO Dan Eisner in a statement.

Mortgage payments remain stable, even as household budgets tighten

While arrears remain low overall, many households are making significant adjustments to their spending to stay current on mortgage payments. Among those surveyed, 57% reported cutting back in other areas to keep up, including 36% delaying or avoiding travel, 31% postponing home repairs, and 27% reducing retirement savings or investments.

The data from True North Mortgage suggests that mortgage payments continue to be prioritized, even as mortgage holders are squeezed across spending categories. That pattern is consistent with what brokers are seeing on the ground, according to Chad Wilson, principal broker at Ideal Mortgage Solutions.

“We’re finding that most clients are expecting payment increases on their next renewal, fully understanding that the ‘pandemic rates’ they were paying were not a realistic expectation,” Wilson told Canadian Mortgage Trends.

“They’ve generally done a good job of planning for higher payments. Spending habits have changed — people are being less careless and more diligent with their budgets, which is a good thing.”

Affordability also remains a key concern. According to the survey, nearly 78% of Canadians said affordability and financial planning are central considerations when buying or renewing a mortgage, with monthly payment costs cited most often.

Interest rate uncertainty remains the top concern at renewal

With more than one million mortgages set to renew through 2026, uncertainty around interest rates is continuing to influence borrower behaviour. The survey found that 36% of mortgage holders identified uncertainty around interest rates as their top concern, making it the most common issue ahead of renewal.

That ranked ahead of concerns about higher payments, with 16% citing higher-than-expected payments as their primary concern.

Borrowers are also weighing product and timing decisions carefully. About 10% said choosing between fixed and variable rates was a concern, while 9% said they were worried about locking in at the wrong time or for the wrong term.

Affordability challenges persist even as confidence in housing holds

Despite ongoing pressure, nearly 62% of respondents said housing remains a stable investment, while 38% disagreed.

At the same time, access to homeownership is becoming more difficult. While 53% said it is still achievable with effort, a significant 42% said it is financially out of reach. Only 5% of respondents described homeownership as easily achievable.

“Housing is a cornerstone of the Canadian economy,” Eisner said. “While Canada has some of the least affordable housing among G7 countries, housing activity remains a major economic driver and job creator. Even as affordability pressures persist, homeownership remains a long-term goal for many Canadians.”

Additional findings
73% of mortgage holders say their current rate is manageable
19% say payments could become difficult if their finances change
8% already find their mortgage rate challenging
Among prospective buyers, budget strain (21%) is the top barrier to qualifying

The survey, conducted online from Jan. 14 to 27, 2026, surveyed 1,056 Canadians and has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

This article is reposted from the Bank of Canada website

Today’s Labour Force Survey for September was stronger than expected, with a net employment gain of 60,400, but the unemployment rate was steady at 7.1% as more people entered the workforce. The employment gain was driven by full-time work. The manufacturing sector–hard hit by US tariffs–added 27,800 employees, and agriculture, health care and other services all added workers. The employment rate — the proportion of the working-age population that’s employed — rose 0.1 percentage points to 60.6% in September.

Average hourly wages among employees increased 3.3% (+$1.17 to $36.78) on a year-over-year basis in September, following growth of 3.2% in August (not seasonally adjusted).

The surprisingly strong job gains suggest Canada’s job market is showing some resilience to tariff disputes with the US. The jump in factory employment, although not driven by autos, suggests the sector may benefit from some exporters’ exemption from levies under the Canada-US-Mexico trade Agreement.

The loonie surged in response to the news as shorter-term interest rates rose. The report reduces expectations for a rate cut when the Bank of Canada meets again on October 29, with traders putting the odds at about 25%, down from 70% before the data release. However, the better-than-expected job gains did not fully offset the losses posted in July and August, as Canada shed a net 45,900 jobs over the third quarter, the weakest quarter since the pandemic.

Total hours worked fell 0.2% last month, and the labour force rose by 72,300.

Even with the latest jobs report, the Canadian economy remains vulnerable to the unsettling US attitude towards the free trade agreement, which is slated to be renegotiated by July 2026. The Bank of Canada cut the overnight policy rate to 2.5% in September, and additional rate cuts are likely this year. The Bank has only two more decision dates in 2025: October 29 and December 10. September inflation data will be released on October 21, the day after the BoC publication of the Business and Consumer Outlook Survey.

The overall unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.1% in September, following a 0.2 percentage point increase in August. Since the start of 2025, the unemployment rate has increased by 0.5 percentage points. The trend has generally been upward since the beginning of the year, with an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to January. Youth unemployment rates remain elevated, with the jobless rate among students at a whopping 17.1%, and at 11.9% for youth not attending school.

Employment in manufacturing rose in September (+28,000; +1.5%), the first increase since January. The gain was concentrated in Ontario (+12,000) and Alberta (+7,900). Before the rise in September, employment in manufacturing had recorded a net decline of 58,000 (-3.1%) from January to August.

Employment change by industry, September 2025

In Quebec, employment was little changed for a third consecutive month in September. The unemployment rate in Quebec in September (5.7%) was down from the recent peak of 6.3% recorded in June, and little changed on a year-over-year basis. However, Quebec will undoubtedly see job losses in the aluminum and lumber industries unless US tariffs are reduced sharply.

Employment was also little changed in Ontario in September. The unemployment rate in the province increased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.9% in September, as more people searched for work. The unemployment rate in the province was up 0.8 percentage points from September 2024. In the CMA of Toronto, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.9% in September 2025 and was up 0.8 percentage points on a year-over-year basis (three-month moving averages).

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada has made it clear that it will focus on inflation as well as on increasing slack in the economy, and a September cut may still hinge on the consumer price index released next week. Labour markets are still softer than they were a year ago. The unemployment rate held steady at 7.1% in September, but it remains up half a percent from a year ago. International trade data softened in August, and U.S. tariffs remain a significant threat to the economic outlook.

It is doubtful that Bank of Canada policymakers thought in September that just one cut in the overnight rate would be enough to address economic weakness, and the labour force data today probably isn’t positive enough alone to derail another cut in October. Still, the Bank of Canada will also have to take into account the next round of inflation data – and future cuts beyond October would be less likely if government deficit spending ramps up as expected to help address tariff-related economic weakness.

The central bank is well aware that the Labour Force Survey is notoriously volatile, and the jobless rate at 7.1% is still up half a percentage point from a year ago. The underlying details of the report were not as positive. Actual hours worked declined despite the surge in full-time employment. And permanent layoffs ticked higher. But other sectors have remained broadly resilient. Services employment was up 18k month-over-month and 225k year-over-year last month. All eyes will be on the CPI data next Tuesday.

Please Note: The source of this article is from SherryCooper.com/category/articles/

Written by The Canadian Press Regional October 2, 2025

Vancouver-area home sales inched up in September from last year, but prices are still under pressure as sales stand well below long-term trends while listings rise, said Greater Vancouver Realtors.

Vancouver-area home sales inched up in September from last year, but prices are still under pressure as sales stand well below long-term trends while listings rise, said Greater Vancouver Realtors.

Sales totalled 1,875 in the month, a 1.2% increase from last year but 20.1% below the 10-year seasonal average, the board said Thursday.

There were 6,527 new home listings in September, a 6.2% increase from last year, leaving total listings up 14.4% from a year earlier at 17,079 homes. The total number of homes for sale was 36.1% above the 10-year seasonal average.

The rise in listings and tepid sales helped lead to a 3.2% decline in the composite benchmark price of a home from last year, and 0.7% lower from August, to $1,142,100.

While the market is under pressure, the association said last month’s interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada, with another expected before the end of the year, could help give some lift to the fall market.

“Easing prices, near-record high inventory levels, and increasingly favourable borrowing costs are offering those looking to purchase a home this fall with plenty of opportunity,” said Andrew Lis, the association’s director of economics and data, in a statement.

Detached home sales were up seven per cent in the month from last year as the benchmark price declined 4.4 per cent to $1,933,100. Apartment home sales rose 1.5% as the category’s benchmark price also dropped 4.4%, to $728,800. Attached home sales were down 5.8%.

While the market has been under pressure in recent years from interest rates, policy shifts and trade tensions, there is the potential for improvement in the months ahead, said Lis.

“With the acute impacts of these events now fading, we expect market activity to continue stabilizing to end the year, barring any unforeseeable major disruptions.”

People hunting for homes and mortgages have had a lot of economic and market news coming their way lately. Probably the most significant is the Bank of Canada’s decision to lower its policy rate.

As expected, the central bank trimmed a quarter of a point off its trendsetting interest rate, bring it to 2.50%. It is the first rate move since March.

The cut came a day after Statistics Canada reported the inflation rate rose to 1.9% in August, up from 1.7% in July.

Normally rising inflation would be a reason for the Bank not to lower its rate, due to concerns about over stimulating the economy and encouraging even more inflation. However, the Bank noted that other factors – such as stable (although higher than desired) core inflation, a decline in the gross domestic product and an increase in unemployment – indicate inflation is not a high risk.

The interest rate cut could make variable-rate mortgages look more attractive for those who are comfortable with potential rate movement.

The Canadian Real Estate Association reports August home sales increased 1.1% compared to July and were almost 2.0% better than a year earlier. The MLS Home Price Index showed flat pricing month-over-month, but registered a 3.4% decline year-over-year. CREA’s national average price was $664,000 in August 2025, up 1.8% from August 2024.

August new listings were up 2.6% over July and up 8.8% over a year earlier.

This article was published by the First National LLP Marketing Team on their website.