The country’s housing market was stone cold in January and the Canadian Real Estate Association is blaming the weather – or at least the weather in parts of southern Ontario. Record setting snowfalls and ferociously cold temperatures appear to have kept house hunters indoors.

Seasonally adjusted sales were down nearly 6.0% in January compared to December. Still, more than 22,500 properties changed hands. The national average sales price slipped 2.6% compared to a year earlier.

CREA is not letting the weather cool its expectations for 2026 though. The Association is forecasting 5.1% sales growth and 2.8% price growth in 2026, driven by pent-up demand and a pent-up desire to sell. That desire to sell may be showing itself. New listings rose more than 7.0%, tipping the market further in favour of buyers.

There is a feeling among some realtors that, while the weather may have been a factor in January, the slump is a hold-over from the end of 2025. They say buyers, especially first-timers, are waiting for greater improvements in affordability through further price reductions and, perhaps, lower interest rates.

The latest inflation numbers suggest there may be some merit in that thinking. Statistics Canada reports headline inflation dipped to 2.3% in January, down from 2.4% in December. Most of the decline came from falling gasoline prices, but shelter inflation continues to slow as well. It dropped below 2.0% for the first time in five years. Hopes for lower interest rates seem more remote though. The Bank of Canada has been clear, it will not be moving rates unless there are very strong reasons to do so.

This article is reposted from First National Finacial’s Marketing Team.

The province’s new program lets eligible first-time buyers purchase with just two per cent down through select credit unions, but brokers warn the trade-offs could limit flexibility and increase long-term costs.

Nova Scotia’s new pilot program to help first-time homebuyers enter the housing market is drawing national attention, as industry experts assess how the initiative intersects with federal mortgage insurance rules and whether it could work beyond the province.

The program, announced last week, is being offered through participating credit unions and allows eligible buyers to purchase a home with as little as a two per cent down payment. Nova Scotia will assume the part of the risk typically covered by mortgage insurers.

While the initiative is intended to improve access to homeownership, industry observers say the pilot’s wider, long-term impact will depend on borrower risk, lender participation, and federal insurer support.

“I like the idea of more people getting into the marketplace and having a lower down payment,” Clinton Wilkins, principal broker at the Halifax, N.S.-based Clinton Wilkins Mortgage Team, told Canadian Mortgage Trends. “But the concern for me is if you’re only putting down two per cent, do you have no other resources? What happens if something goes wrong in the home as well? There’s no fallback position.”

Under the pilot, eligible applicants must have a household income below $200,000, a minimum credit score of 630, and meet standard stress-test requirements.

The program applies to owner-occupied homes priced up to $570,000 in Halifax Regional Municipality and East Hants, and $500,000 elsewhere in the province. Loans issued under the pilot are not insured by federal agencies. Instead, the province provides a deficiency guarantee in place of traditional mortgage insurance.

Because the provincial guarantee is tied to participating credit unions and is not transferable, borrowers would generally need to build at least 20% equity before refinancing or moving the mortgage to another lender.

Concerns about flexibility and long-term costs

Some brokers say those conditions could limit borrowers’ flexibility and increase their long-term borrowing costs.

“The cost of borrowing from a credit union in Nova Scotia is typically one to two per cent higher than we would get from another prime lender,” Wilkins says. “If you’re only putting down two per cent and have no high-ratio insurance, you’re going to be stuck with that credit union likely for five, 10, or 15 years.”

Wilkins says the program could be more beneficial in rural parts of the province, where credit unions often play a larger role in mortgage lending and access to traditional bank branches, and brokers are more limited.

He noted that in those markets, the initiative could help expand homeownership opportunities for buyers who may otherwise face fewer financing options. By contrast, he said the program could negatively impact Halifax’s already competitive housing market.

“The average price point in Halifax is over $600,000,” Wilkins said. “I fear that it may put some additional stress on that sub-$570,000 price point.”

Could the model go national?

Others say the program’s broader impact will depend on how well it aligns with federal mortgage insurance rules and provincial housing policy.

Leigh Graham, a Kingston, Ont.- based broker and partner at The Mortgage Professionals, says the pilot program highlights the complexity of coordinating provincial affordability initiatives with federal lending frameworks. “When somebody’s buying with less than 20% down and they need the government insurance, the insurance factor is still a federal matter,” Graham says.

However, if a government insurer like Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation decides the program is viable, Graham says there’s no reason it couldn’t or shouldn’t spread across the country. It would just depend on how lenders engage with the program at a provincial level.

Graham notes that down payment requirements are only one part of the affordability equation. “Qualification remains the single largest challenge,” he says. “Starter home prices in many Ontario markets are much higher than what average incomes will allow.”

Implications for consumer choice

Given the Nova Scotia pilot’s limitation to 14 specific credit unions, Graham cautions that the structure could restrict consumer choice. “It could end up being a potentially proprietary program for specific lenders,” he says. “That could be challenging for a consumer.”

Michelle Drover, vice-president at Halifax-based Premiere Mortgage Centre, says buyers who enter the pilot through credit unions may face significant constraints when their terms expire. “If somebody takes this product with the credit union, they have no equity,” Drover said. “When the mortgage comes up for renewal, where are they going to switch it? They can’t transfer it to an insured lender because it’s not insured.”

She said limited mobility can weaken borrowers’ negotiating power over time. “We’re in this industry because we’re advocates for our clients,” she said. “We want to ensure that they have options available to them.”

Drover added that first-time buyers should carefully compare the pilot with other available programs before committing. “Go with your eyes wide open and look at all of the options available to you,” she said. “[This] looks pretty, but when you unwrap it, it’s not very pretty inside.”

Written by Andrew Seale, Mortgage Industry News, February 12, 2026 and sourced from Canadian Mortage Trends.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says it sees signs of financial stress among homeowners in Toronto and Vancouver, with missed mortgage payments projected to steadily increase.

First-time buyers who purchased during the COVID-19 pandemic when interest rates were lower also show greater signs of vulnerability.

Figures from CMHC show that while missed mortgage payments have risen, they are at historic lows. The report says some borrowers are extending their amortization periods to help lower their monthly payments.

The national housing agency says more than 1.5 million households have renewed their mortgage at higher interest rates, with another million expected to do so in the coming year.

Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, CMHC deputy chief economist, says most Canadians have been resilient while facing higher interest rates at renewal.

She says extending the length of a mortgage has helped households manage short-term finances, but it comes at a greater longer-term expense.

Written by

The Canadian Press
Mortgage Industry News, Mortgage Industry News
February 5, 2026

Real estate activity in the Vancouver area got off to a slow start this year as residential sales in the region totalled 1,107 last month, down 28.7% from January 2025.

Greater Vancouver Realtors says the number of properties that changed hands was also 30.9% below the 10-year seasonal average.

The composite benchmark price for all residential properties was $1,101,900, down 5.7% from the same time last year and 1.2% lower than December.

The board’s chief economist and vice-president of data analytics Andrew Lis says that while the January data may “appear alarming,” the quiet pace to kick off 2026 is unsurprising after last year ended with one of the lowest sales totals in more than two decades.

There were 5,157 new listings on the market last month, down 7.3% from a year earlier but 19.4% above the 10-year average.

Total inventory grew 9.9% year-over-year to 12,628, which was 38% above the long-term average.

Written by:

The Canadian Press
Real Estate
February 3, 2026

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

Major economies around the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty is still high. In the United States, economic growth is being supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US government shutdown caused volatility in quarterly growth and delayed the release of some key economic data. Tariffs are causing some upward pressure on US inflation. In the euro area, economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the services sector showing particular resilience. In China, soft domestic demand, including more weakness in the housing market, is weighing on growth. Global financial conditions, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar are all roughly unchanged since the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

Canada’s economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6% in the third quarter, even as final domestic demand was flat. The increase in GDP largely reflected volatility in trade. The Bank expects final domestic demand will grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to cause quarterly volatility.

Canada’s labour market is showing some signs of improvement. Employment has shown solid gains in the past three months and the unemployment rate declined to 6.5% in November. Nevertheless, job markets in trade-sensitive sectors remain weak and economy-wide hiring intentions continue to be subdued.

CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October, as gasoline prices fell and food prices rose more slowly. CPI inflation has been close to the 2% target for more than a year, while measures of core inflation remain in the range of 2½% to 3%. The Bank assesses that underlying inflation is still around 2½%. In the near term, CPI inflation is likely to be higher due to the effects of last year’s GST/HST holiday on the prices of some goods and services. Looking through this choppiness, the Bank expects ongoing economic slack to roughly offset cost pressures associated with the reconfiguration of trade, keeping CPI inflation close to the 2% target.

If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Uncertainty remains elevated. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 28, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released at the same time.

This article was posted on the Bank of Canada Website

National Bank of Canada’s top executive called on Prime Minister Mark Carney to consider bold tax cuts and deregulation for strategic sectors to boost the country’s productivity and competitiveness.

By Mathieu Dion

“We need to have lower taxes than the U.S. for businesses,” Chief Executive Officer Laurent Ferreira said at the Canada Fintech Forum in Montreal on Monday evening. The government should even think about a “zero tax policy” for strategic manufacturing and defense procurement, he said.

Ferreira, who has led Canada’s sixth-largest bank since 2021, told the audience the country’s productivity growth has been weak for a decade. “We need to wake up,” he said, also calling for fewer regulatory requirements in the manufacturing sector.

“We need to be more competitive. We have a hard time attracting capital. We have a hard time keeping our businesses in Canada.”

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have sent a chill through Canada’s economy over the past several months. Gross domestic product contracted at a 1.6% annualized pace in the second quarter amid a drop in exports and soft business investment.

Most Canadian goods are still exempt from new U.S. levies under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. But Trump’s tariff policy has shaken the automotive, steel and aluminum industries, and the unpredictable outcome of a new deal is leading many companies to wait before investing.

“No one really knows how tariffs are going to impact the U.S., Canada, and growing deficits around the world are also a big question mark for the bond market,” Ferreira said. “Those are obviously uncertainties that are around that and clients, businesses are on pause.”

Carney has promised to release a federal budget on Nov. 4 with substantial investments to boost the country’s economy. The government trimmed personal income taxes in July, but hasn’t indicated it’s considering large cuts to business taxes.

Canada faces significant budget pressures, partly because of increased military spending. The deficit will be about $70 billion this fiscal year, or more than 2% of GDP, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Still, Ferreira praised the federal and provincial governments’ focus since the beginning of the trade war. “It’s an economic agenda, and it is very encouraging to hear everything that they’re working on,” he said about his discussions with government officials.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.