Variable mortgage rates are looking increasingly attractive compared to fixed rates, with the potential for significant savings, according to new research from BMO Economics.

With additional Bank of Canada rate cuts expected this year, the bank argues that variable-rate mortgages could offer borrowers more savings over the long run.

“With borrowing costs more likely to fall than rise—and by a lot in a possible trade war—a floating rate mortgage could pay off,” writes senior BMO economist Sal Guatieri.

While current variable mortgage rates are roughly on par with—or slightly higher than—5-year fixed rates, Guatieri notes they’re “unlikely to stay there.”

How variable rates are priced

Unlike fixed mortgage rates, which are influenced by bond yields, variable rates are tied to lenders’ prime lending rates.

These, in turn, follow the Bank of Canada’s overnight policy rate, which currently sits at 3.00%. The current prime rate offered by major lenders is 5.20%, meaning most variable rates are currently priced at a discount off the prime rate.

Most economists expect the Bank of Canada to continue cutting rates this year, in addition to the six consecutive rate cuts the Bank delivered last year. That means lenders’ prime rates should follow suit—bringing down borrowing costs for variable-rate mortgage holders.

Where rates are headed

BMO’s latest forecast sees the Bank of Canada’s policy rate falling to 2.50% by later this year, or potentially down to 1.50% in the event of a full-fledged trade war with the U.S. (See full story here). Under the base-case scenario, this would likely push the prime rate below 4.50%, meaning today’s variable-rate borrowers could see meaningful savings.

Other big banks generally share this outlook, with CIBC, National Bank, and TD all expecting the BoC policy rate to drop to 2.25% by year-end, while RBC is even more aggressive, forecasting a fall to 2.00%.

BoC policy rate forecasts from the Big 6 banks

More borrowers are turning to variable rates

With variable rates looking more appealing, more borrowers are already reconsidering their mortgage options.

Data from the Bank of Canada shows that as of November, nearly a quarter of new mortgages were variable-rate—up from less than 10% earlier in the year.

Mortgage broker Ron Butler told Canadian Mortgage Trends previously that this trend has only accelerated in recent months, noting that the share of variable mortgages he’s originating has jumped from 7% last year to 40% today.

Why BMO thinks it’s a smart bet

BMO argues that with rate cuts ahead, borrowers choosing variable rates today are positioning themselves for lower payments in the near future.

“We estimate a borrower putting 10% down on a half-million-dollar home financed over 25 years would save an average of 40 bps per year compared with locking in for five years,” he wrote. “That equates to just over $100 per month or more than $6,000 in five years.”

In the event that a trade war with the U.S. “torpedoes the economy,” Guatieri says the savings could be even greater, with variable-rate borrowers saving an additional 29 bps on average over the 5-year term—or an extra $74 per month.”

Another benefit, Guatieri notes, is that that variable-rate borrowers still have the flexibility to lock in if rates unexpectedly start to rise.

While there’s always a degree of uncertainty, Guatieri believes the bigger risk is locking into a fixed rate and missing out on potential savings.

Weighing the risks and alternatives

While BMO’s forecast aligns with market expectations for 50 bps in rate cuts this year, Guatieri acknowledges that there’s no guarantee the Bank of Canada will ease further.

“Should the Bank stand pat on rates, locking in could pay off moderately,” he wrote. “Furthermore, the economy could strengthen materially if a trade war is averted, causing inflation to reheat and the Bank to unwind some rate cuts. In this case, a fixed rate would clearly be the better choice.”

For risk-averse borrowers, a shorter-term fixed rate could be a middle ground.

Three-year fixed rates are currently slightly lower than five-year rates and provide the flexibility to refinance sooner at a potentially lower variable rate. According to BMO, this approach could save borrowers about 20 bps per year over five years compared to locking in for the full five years today.

“While that’s still 20 bps higher than opting for a variable rate today, the extra cost may be worth paying to hedge against potential rate increases,” Guatieri added.

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

Canada’s inflation report for January has led to a sharp decline in the chances of the Bank of Canada cutting rates in March.

Canada’s headline inflation rate rose by 1.9% year-over-year in January, a slight increase from December’s 1.8% and in line with expectations.

The increase in headline CPI was largely driven by higher energy prices, notably gasoline (+8.6%) and natural gas (+4.8%).

The Goods and Services Tax (GST) holiday, which ran from mid-December to mid-February, provided some relief. This temporary measure helped reduce prices for food purchased at restaurants (-5.1% y/y), alcoholic beverages (-3.6% y/y), and toys, games, and hobby supplies (-6.8% y/y).

Core inflation measures, which are closely monitored by the Bank of Canada, showed a more mixed picture. CPI excluding food and energy remained stable at 2.2% y/y, but the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of CPI excluding food and energy slowed to 1.6% in January from 4% in December.

However, the Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures, CPI-Trim and CPI-Median, both edged higher to 2.7% y/y, signalling that underlying inflation pressures remain. Moreover, the three-month annualized trend of core inflation has been tracking above 3%, suggesting that core inflation “could continue to rise in the coming months “should continue to grind higher,” noted TD economist James Orlando.

Impact on Bank of Canada rate cut expectations

Following today’s release, market odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Bank of Canada’s March 12 policy meeting dropped to under 30%.

“There is too much underlying inflationary pressure in Canada to warrant an inflation-targeting central bank easing monetary policy further,” wrote Scotiabank‘s Derek Holt.

“The state of the job market also does not merit further easing,” he added, referencing January’s higher-than-expected job growth. “Canadian inflation remains too warm for the Bank of Canada to continue easing.”

However, economists remain divided on the Bank of Canada’s next move. Some, like Oxford Economics, still expect the Bank to continue cutting rates in the months ahead.

“The Bank of Canada will be in a bind as it weighs competing concerns over higher prices from the tariffs with the drag on economic growth,” noted Tony Stillo, Director of Canada Economics at Oxford.

“We believe the BoC will look through the temporary price shock and instead focus on the negative implications for the Canadian economy and heightened trade policy uncertainty, leaving it on track to lower the policy rate another 75bps to 2.25% by June 2025,” he added.

TD’s Orlando also underscored the challenge the Bank of Canada faces in balancing competing priorities.

“Does it weigh the downside risks to the economy in the face of U.S. tariffs, or does it focus on recent economic strength and the impact this is having on inflation?” he questioned, while acknowledging that much can change between now and the next BoC policy meeting.

“There is plenty of time between now and March 12, and if the President’s first few weeks are anything to go by, a lot could change before then,” he added.

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

Steve Huebl

Steve Huebl is a graduate of Ryerson University’s School of Journalism and has been with Canadian Mortgage Trends and reporting on the mortgage industry since 2009. His past work experience includes The Toronto Star, The Calgary Herald, the Sarnia Observer and Canadian Economic Press. Born and raised in Toronto, he now calls Montreal home.

After the Bank of Canada’s latest rate reduction 5-year variable mortgage rates are now on par with their fixed-rate counterparts, raising the question: Is now the time to go variable?

With additional Bank of Canada rate cuts expected, variable-rate mortgages are becoming an increasingly attractive option.

But choosing flexibility comes with its challenges—borrowers must weigh potential savings against heightened market volatility and the growing uncertainty surrounding a possible trade war with the U.S.

Ron Butler of Butler Mortgages told Canadian Mortgage Trends that this is the most volatile time he’s seen in the bond market “in forever.”

“It’s literally like 2008, during the Global Financial Crisis, it’s so wild,” he said.

Butler notes that the Canadian 5-year bond yield, which typically leads fixed-mortgage rate pricing, fell from a high of 3.85% in April to 2.64% last week, a significant change in such a short period of time. As a result, following six consecutive Bank of Canada rate cuts, 5-year variable rates are now nearly on par with fixed equivalents.

Clients opting for variable rates in droves

Look past the volatility—and the threat of devastating U.S. tariffs —and variable rates present a compelling case.

Markets are still pricing in at least two more quarter-point Bank of Canada cuts this year, which could push variable mortgage rates down at least another 50 basis points.

Some forecast even more aggressive rate-cut action will be required to counter the ecnoomic shock of a trade war with the U.S.

“I don’t think it’s a stretch to believe that the Bank will reduce its policy rate from its current level of 3.00% down to at least 2% during the current rate cycle,” David Larock of Integrated Mortgage Planners said in a recent blog.

However, he cautions that there is also the risk that rate hikes come back into play should inflationary pressures re-emerge.

“While I expect variable rates to outperform today’s fixed-rate options, I caution anyone choosing a 5-year variable rate today to do so only if they are prepared for a rate rise at some point over their term,” Larock added. “Five years is long enough for the next rate cycle to begin, and for variable rates to rise from wherever they bottom out over the near term.”

Still, it’s a risk more and more borrowers are willing to take. Data from the Bank of Canada shows that as of November, nearly a quarter of new mortgages were variable-rate, up from less than 10% earlier in the year.

Butler says this trend has only accelerated in recent months, noting that the share of variable mortgages he’s originating has surged from 7% last year to 40% now.

“We advise clients to take variable because we now have actual reporting from marketplace analysts that it will go down,” he says. “The fee benefit of variable is a guaranteed penalty amount; you just don’t know what penalty you’re really going to get with fixed.”

Unlike fixed-rate mortgages, which often come with interest rate differential (IRD) penalties that can amount to tens of thousands of dollars, variable-rate mortgages typically carry a much smaller penalty—just three months’ interest—making them a more flexible option for borrowers who may need to break their mortgage early.

Butler argues that if tariffs are imposed, their impact on the mortgage market won’t be immediate, as inflation would primarily rise due to retaliatory counter-tariffs. This lag, he says, could give variable-rate borrowers a window to switch to a fixed rate before higher inflation forces the Bank of Canada to reverse course and hike rates.

“This kind of trade war means that in the beginning, the economy deteriorates, and interest rates go down; it takes nine months or a year for the inflation to really lock into a point where the Bank has to raise rates,” he says. “The inflation spiral takes time. The Bank of Canada will cut long before costs start to increase.”

Tracy Valko of Valko Financial, however, suggests that in such a trade war inflation becomes secondary to more immediate economic indicators, like unemployment. That, she warns, could skyrocket following a tariff announcement as companies brace for impact.

“‘Inflation’ was the word last year; this year I think it will be ‘employment,’ because tariffs will drive unemployment, and people won’t be able to afford housing, which will put a lot of pressure on the government infrastructure,” she says. “I don’t think it will be like inflation, which is a lagging indicator, because businesses will have to adjust quite quickly, and we could see massive unemployment in certain sectors.”

Even Trump’s latest tariff threat on aluminum and steel imports could have devastating impacts on Canadian workers in those industries within days.

Valko adds that high unemployment would potentially drive interest rates down faster—potentially even triggering an emergency rate cut, as National Bank had suggested—to blunt the effects of high tariffs. That potential scenario, Valko says, adds to the variable rate argument, but also adds to the widespread feeling of uncertainty in the market.

“A lot of people are really pessimistic right now on the future; we’ve had clients and homeowners that have had a lot of shocks in the mortgage market and the real estate market, and are not interested in having any more instability,” she says. “People are more educated than they’ve ever been before, so they are really looking at their financing—which is great to see—but people are very cautious, so to take variable, it has to be a very risk-tolerant client.”

Rate options for the more risk-averse borrowers

Valko notes that borrowers wary of economic uncertainty are increasingly choosing shorter-term fixed rates, offering stability without locking in for the long haul.

“Three-year fixed has been probably the most popular because it’s not taking that higher rate for the traditional five-year fixed rate term,” she says. “They’re hoping in three years we’ll see a more normalized and balanced market.”

For more cautious borrowers, hybrid mortgages—which split the loan between fixed and variable rates—are another option and are currently available through most major financial institutions.

“There are some people that are in the middle of that risk tolerance, and if they could put a portion in fixed and a portion in variable—and to be able to adjust it quickly—I think it would be a really good option,” Valko says.

Butler, however, disagrees.

“A hybrid mortgage means you are always half wrong about mortgage rates,” he says. “If the balance of probability clearly indicates variable is the correct short-term answer, take variable and carefully monitor the movement of fixed rates.”

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced the overnight rate by 25 basis points this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 3.0%. The market had anticipated a nearly 98% chance of this 25 basis point reduction, and consensus aligned with this expectation. The Federal Reserve is also set to announce its rate decision this afternoon, where it is widely expected to maintain the current policy rate. As a result, the gap between the US Federal Funds rate and the BoC’s overnight rate has widened to 150 basis points. This discrepancy is largely attributed to stronger growth and inflation in the US compared to Canada. Consequently, Canada’s relatively low interest rates have negatively impacted the Canadian dollar, which has fallen to 69.2 cents against the US dollar. Additionally, oil prices have dropped by five dollars, now at US$73.61.

The Bank also announced its plan to conclude the normalization of its balance sheet by ending quantitative tightening. It will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually to stabilize and modestly grow its balance sheet in alignment with economic growth.

The projections in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) released today are marked by more-than-usual uncertainty due to the rapidly evolving policy landscape, particularly the potential threat of trade tariffs from the new administration in the United States. Given the unpredictable scope and duration of a possible trade conflict, this MPR provides a baseline forecast without accounting for new tariffs.

According to the MPR projections, the global economy is expected to grow by about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States has been revised upward, mainly due to stronger consumption. However, growth in the euro area is likely to remain subdued as the region faces competitiveness challenges. In China, recent policy actions are expected to boost demand and support near-term growth, although structural challenges persist. Since October, financial conditions have diverged across countries, with US bond yields rising due to strong growth and persistent inflation, while yields in Canada have decreased slightly.

The BoC press release states, “In Canada, past cuts to interest rates have begun to stimulate the economy. The recent increase in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains lackluster. The outlook for exports is improving, supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.

Canada’s labor market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months after a prolonged period of stagnation in the labor force. Wage pressures, previously sticky, are showing some signs of easing.

The Bank forecasts GDP growth to strengthen in 2025. However, with slower population growth due to reduced immigration targets, both GDP and potential growth will be more moderate than previously anticipated in October. Following a growth rate of 1.3% in 2024, the Bank now projects GDP to grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, slightly exceeding potential growth. As a result, excess supply in the economy is expected to be gradually absorbed over the projection horizon.

CPI inflation remains close to the 2% target, though with some volatility stemming from the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on select consumer products. Shelter price inflation remains elevated but is gradually easing, as anticipated. A broad range of indicators, including surveys on inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among CPI components, suggests that underlying inflation is near the 2% target. The Bank forecasts that CPI inflation will remain around this target over the next two years.

Aside from the potential US tariffs, the risks surrounding the outlook appear reasonably balanced. However, as noted in the MPR, a prolonged trade conflict would most likely result in weaker GDP growth and increased prices in Canada.

With inflation around 2% and the economy in a state of excess supply, the Governing Council has decided to further reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points to 3%. This marks a substantial (200 bps) cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June. Lower interest rates are expected to boost household spending, and the outlook published today suggests that the economy will gradually strengthen while inflation remains close to the target. Nevertheless, significant and widespread tariffs could challenge the resilience of Canada’s economy. The Bank will closely monitor developments and assess their implications for economic activity, inflation, and monetary policy in Canada. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.Nevertheless, significant and widespread tariffs could challenge the resilience of Canada’s economy. The Bank will closely monitor developments and assess their implications for economic activity, inflation, and monetary policy in Canada. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.

Bottom Line

The central bank dropped its guidance on further adjustments to borrowing costs as US President Donald Trump’s tariff threat clouded the outlook.

Bonds surged as the market absorbed the central bank’s decision not to guide future rate moves. The yield on Canada’s two-year notes slid some four basis points to 2.79%, the lowest since 2022. The loonie maintained the day’s losses against the US dollar.

In prepared remarks, Macklem said while “monetary policy has worked to restore price stability,” a broad-based trade conflict would “badly hurt” economic activity but that the higher cost of goods “will put direct upward pressure on inflation.”

“With a single instrument — our policy rate — we can’t lean against weaker output and higher inflation at the same time,” Macklem said, adding the central bank would need to “carefully assess” the downward pressure on inflation and weigh that against the upward pressure on inflation from “higher input prices and supply chain disruptions.”

In the accompanying monetary policy report, the central bank lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2025 due to the federal government’s lower immigration targets. The bank expects the economy to expand by 1.8% in 2025 and 2026, down from 2.1 and 2.3% in previous projections. The central bank trimmed business investment and exports estimates but boosted its consumption forecast.

The bank estimated that interest rate divergence with the Federal Reserve was responsible for about 1% of the depreciation in the Canadian dollar since October.

We expect the BoC to continue cutting the policy rate in 25-bps increments until it reaches 2.5% this Spring, triggering continued strengthening in the Canadian housing market.