Former Scotiabank Mortgage head John Webster weighed in, noting that the big banks’ competitive pricing is unsustainable and unlikely to continue for long.

A mortgage rate war is expected to intensify, with more than half of all mortgages held by Canadian banks set to renew over the next two years, says an RBC analyst.

With interest rates now down from peak levels, mortgage shoppers—especially those with mortgages locked in at historically low rates—will have a “strong incentive” to shop around for better deals, creating intense competition among lenders, RBC analyst Darko Mihelic wrote in a recent research note.

“In today’s market, lower mortgage rates will make a significant difference for Canadians whose mortgages were originated at all-time low interest rates,” he noted. “For a mortgage that was taken out in June 2020, a 50-basis-point impact in the renewal rate would result in annual savings of about $1,000.”

He adds that this will likely prompt mortgage brokers to “actively mine” their databases and preemptively reach out to clients to help them find more attractive renewal terms.

Mihelic points out that TD Bank, facing restrictions on its U.S. expansion, may turn its focus toward Canadian mortgage renewals in an effort to meet its financial targets. This could push other major players to sharpen their competitive edge.

“All Canadian banks view mortgages as a significant anchor product and, currently, loan growth across multiple loan categories is very low,” Mihelic said. “The chance to grab market share from a competitor is significant.”

A competitive challenge for brokers

Many brokers have pointed out that it’s becoming increasingly difficult to compete with the Big Banks, especially given their unusually aggressive mortgage rate pricing.

At a recent public appearance, John Webster, former CEO of Scotia Mortgage Authority, said there’s been a lot of “silly business” going on among the big banks as they strive to meet quarterly revenue targets. However, he added that it’s “a little bit early to say it’s solely driven by market share.”

He referenced Mihelic’s report, suggesting there’s been a “confluence of circumstances” that are driving the big banks to be more competitive on their mortgage product pricing, including TD’s recent troubles in the U.S. and CIBC having “challenges” with gaining market share.

“I don’t think that will continue,” Webster said. “I suspect in the first quarter…there will be more rationality in pricing, at least I hope so. It’s not sustainable.”

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

Average asking rents declined nationally on a year-over-year basis for the first time in more than three years in October, said a report out Thursday.

By Sammy Hudes

The report from Rentals.ca and Urbanation found average asking rents across Canada sat at $2,152 in October, down 1.2% from the same month in 2023 — the first national decrease since July 2021.

The decline is mainly concentrated in Canada’s major urban centres, with cities like Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, and Montreal seeing rent decreases.

Urbanation president Shaun Hildebrand said it is rare for rents to decline year-over-year at the national level.

“This is happening as the key drivers of rent growth in recent years — a strengthening economy, quickly rising population, and worsening homeownership affordability — are beginning to reverse,” said Hildebrand.

“As a result, we can likely expect this trend for rents to continue in the near-term, particularly as apartment completions remain at record highs.”

B.C. and Ontario recorded the most significant annual rent decreases among the provinces, with the former seeing average asking rents for apartments down 3.4% to $2,549 and the latter recording a 5.7% drop to $2,350.

Rents rose 17.1% in Saskatchewan, which remained the fastest-growing province in the country in terms of asking price, after seeing 23.5% annual growth in September.

By city, Toronto recorded the largest annual decline in asking rents for apartments in October, at 9.2%, to reach an average of $2,642. Vancouver saw an 8.4% year-over-year rent decline to an average of $2,945, while Calgary apartment rents fell 4.7% to $1,995.

In Montreal, average rents were down 2.9% at $1,987. Ottawa apartment rents held steady with a 0.4% annual increase to reach $2,207.

However, Edmonton led rent growth in Canada’s largest markets as apartment rents rose 8.4% annually to an average of $1,584.

Based on the report, the average asking rent for a one-bedroom unit in Canada was $1,923 in October, down 0.8% from a year ago. The average asking price for a two-bedroom unit was $2,308, down 0.2%.

Overall, asking rents for purpose-built rental apartments in October rose 1.7% compared with a year earlier to reach an average of $2,100.

Meanwhile, condominium apartment rents, which averaged $2,265, were down 3.8%.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Everyone starts building their credit score somewhere — and for many, it’s getting that first credit card during college or university.

By Nina Dragicevic

These products are “sticky,” said Robin Taub, a chartered professional accountant in Toronto, and author of “The Wisest Investment: Teaching Your Kids to Be Responsible, Independent and Money-Smart for Life.”

“Once you have a relationship and a card or accounts with one bank, you don’t often change,” she said. “That’s why you’re seeing so many of these (credit card) promotions and kiosks on campus.”

Facing a likely long-term commitment with whichever card they choose, students should be picky in the face of “giveaways and freebies,” she added.

The top three considerations when choosing a card are annual fees, interest rates and rewards, said Taub. The first two should be as low as possible, while the third should be as high as possible, based on your lifestyle.

Most credit cards carry interest rates of around 20 per cent, with cash advances higher, although there may be promotional rates offered at signup. In this stage of their financial life, however, Taub said students shouldn’t tangle with interest at all.

“Just understand the minimum payment — when you go into your (statement), they make that minimum payment a little more visually obvious than the full amount, right?” she said. “Don’t just pay that minimum balance, because then you’re carrying a balance at that rate of interest.

“Try and pay the full amount, and pay it on time to avoid penalties and interest,” Taub added, “and to build a credit rating.”

Paying your full balance each month shows you’re using credit correctly — you’re budgeting — your spending doesn’t exceed your earnings. Young consumers are still getting into trouble during this life phase, said Thuy Lam, a certified financial planner at Objective Financial Partners.

“I see so many students — even when I was a student, my own friends — get into $20,000, $30,000, and $40,000 of credit card debt during school years because they don’t realize that, ‘Oh, it’s not free money,’” she said.

Get a low limit and resist any offers to increase it until you’ve established good spending habits, Lam added. For students with minimal cash flow — not working part-time during school, little savings — this credit card barely needs to be used at all.

You can drop one recurring bill on your card, like a phone plan. A small amount is easy to pay completely and having it show up every month establishes a good history of timely payments.

“I think the key is keeping in mind: what is the purpose of a credit card?” Lam said. “And for students, that’s No. 1: facilitating small bill payments and, No. 2: building and establishing credit.

As for rewards, Taub pointed out that some students may have support from their parents, savings, RESPs, or scholarships — and with those resources, they might find value in travel, concerts or other lifestyle perks.

But she also noted most students are struggling financially; a recent TD survey found 65 per cent of students said they were financially unstable. There may be more value in a simple cash-back card.

Lam agreed — sometimes rewards are a flashy lure to students who may not yet be in the position to make those rewards worthwhile.

“I tend to recommend a no-fee card, and just a very simple, percentage cash back,” Lam said. “Whether it’s for groceries or overall spending — just keep it simple that way, and to stick with one credit card in the beginning.”

Once you have a strong credit score, and perhaps a better financial situation, you might receive offers for other cards with better benefits, Lam said. There may be a signup promotion for thousands of reward points — but it’s smart to keep your first card going, even if you add something new.

“History and track record is so important,” Lam said. “When it comes to building a really good credit score, you want one card and you want to keep it for a long time. Let’s say you were to get a second card at some point — don’t necessarily cancel the first one because that has the longest history.”

Go slow, keep limits low, and build good habits around budgeting and spending, Lam said. She recommends everyone put aside a few minutes each month to review transactions on their credit cards.

“There could be fraud happening — that’s happened a few times (to people I know) — or someone charged you the wrong amount, or you didn’t get a refund,” Lam said.

And scanning your statement is a moment to look back on the month: “It’s a reflection point to ask yourself, ‘Okay, is this what I intended on spending?’”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 1, 2024.

Both of the main candidates in British Columbia’s election campaign pushed their own plans to solve parts of the housing crisis.

By Nono Shen and Brieanna Charlebois

B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad told a news conference in Surrey that his government would end the multi-year permit delays and would get homes built at the speed and scale needed to address the housing crisis.

NDP Leader David Eby went to Cumberland on Vancouver Island to promote his party’s plan to fast-track factory-built homes.

Eby said pre-built homes would cut waste, reduce emissions, and advances in the industry mean the homes are “beautiful and high-quality.”

He said the process was “more like Lego” than normal construction.

“The idea is pretty straightforward. In a controlled factory environment, you can build faster, you can build with less waste and the homes that are built are more consistent and more efficient and it’s cheaper.”

Rustad said the Conservative Party of B.C. would redesign the approval process for home building, setting a six-month limit for rezoning and development permit and three months for a building permit.

“This means that we will significantly be able to improve the time frame it takes to actually get construction happening in this province, and we’ll be working with city halls across the province to be able to meet these timelines,” Rustad said.

If a clear yes or no isn’t issued by a city within that limit, the province would issue the permit, said a B.C. Conservative news release announcing the platform.

Rustad said the party would remove NDP taxes on housing, support transit-oriented communities, reform development cost charges and make taxes fair for homeowners.

“We have so much regulation that has been put in place associated with housing that it makes it really difficult for anybody to be able to actually get through and build things, not to mention the cost,” he said. “So we’ll amend the Local Government Act to prevent any home killing red tape that has been introduced by this government.”

The party’s statement also outlined their zoning plan, adding that it would work with BC Assessment “to make sure that current homeowners don’t get hit with higher tax bills based on future potential.”

The party statement said, if elected, a Conservative government would build new towns, saying B.C. is blessed with an abundance of land, but the NDP refuses to use it to end the housing shortage.

“We will identify land outside the Agricultural Land Reserve that has the potential to support beautiful new communities.”

A statement issued by the NDP on Friday said it would work with industry, municipalities and First Nations to create a provincewide framework for prefabricated homes so builders know what’s required in every community.

It said there would be a pre-approved set of designs to reduce the permitting process, and it would work to develop skills training needed to support prefabricated home construction.

The statement said Scandinavian countries had embraced factory-built homes, which “offer an alternative to the much slower, more costly process of building on-site.”

“By growing B.C.’s own factory-built home construction industry, everyone from multi-generational families to municipalities will be able to quickly build single homes, duplexes and triplexes on land they already own,” Eby said.

The party said legislation passed by the NDP government last year was a “game changer” for the factory-built home construction industry in the province, where there are currently 10 certified manufacturing plants.

Muchalat Construction Ltd. is one of them, and owner Tania Formosa said pre-approved structures speed up the building process considerably.

She said her company’s projects currently take 12 to 13 months to complete, from startup design to getting the house on site.

“If everything was in place and fast-tracked at the beginning and we were able to just fly along, it would probably take three months off the full schedule,” she said.

She said a main issue for modular manufacturers is that work gets stalled if they run into roadblocks with jurisdictions or BC Housing in the approval process.

“There’s no option for the manufacturer to start another project,” she said. “Having our products approved prior to the process would be amazing.”

She acknowledged the potential drawback of pre-approved designs creating a cookie-cutter look for some neighbourhoods.

“Unfortunately (what) happens in your jurisdiction, in your city, is it ends up looking a lot the same, but what are your priorities?”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2024.

OSFI has confirmed that it will remove the requirement for lenders to apply the Minimum Qualifying Rate (MQR) to straight switches of uninsured mortgages.

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

Economists anticipate that Canada’s annual inflation rate in August fell to its lowest level since March 2021.

By Sammy Hudes

“Unless there’s something lurking out there that we’re not aware of, it looks like we’re headed for a pretty favourable reading,” said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter.

RBC economists Nathan Janzen and Claire Fan said in a report last week that those expectations would put the headline inflation rate just a hair over the Bank of Canada’s two per cent inflation target.

“Most of that August slowing is expected from a pullback in gasoline prices, but the (Bank of Canada’s) preferred core CPI measures are also expected to trend lower, with the closely-watched three-month annualized growth rate easing from an average of 2.6% in July,” the RBC economists said.

The continued progress on slowing inflation comes as the central bank has signalled a willingness to speed up cuts to its key lending rate if circumstances warrant.

The Bank of Canada reduced its key lending rate by a quarter-percentage point earlier this month — the third consecutive cut — to 4.25%. Governor Tiff Macklem said the decision was motivated by falling inflation, noting if the CPI moving forward “was significantly weaker than we expected … it could be appropriate to take a bigger step, something bigger than 25 basis points.”

On the other hand, Macklem said if inflation is stronger than expected, the bank could slow the pace of rate cuts.

Inflation has remained below three per cent since January and fears of price growth reaccelerating have diminished as the economy has weakened.

Porter said despite progress on the inflation rate, it’s still “not in a place where it’s a compelling argument that the bank has to go even faster.”

He forecasts the central bank will cut its key lending rate by a quarter-percentage point at every meeting until July 2025, bringing it down to 2.5 per cent by that time. That prediction also comes after data released last week that showed Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.6% in August from 6.4% in July.

However, Porter said it’s possible the bank could speed up its rate cutting cycle if inflation continues easing.

“If we’re going to be wrong, it’s that we’re going to get to 2.5% even more quickly and possibly lower than that,” said Porter.

“There is a case to be made that if the economy were to weaken further, there’s little reason for the bank to keep rates in what they consider to be the neutral zone. They could go below that.”

Shelter costs have remained the main driver of inflation as Canadians face high rents and mortgage payments. Porter noted that when factoring out housing costs, inflation in both Canada and U.S. is hovering slightly above one per cent.

“So really, the only thing keeping Canadian inflation above two per cent is shelter and it does look like shelter costs are probably going to fade,” he said.

“It looks as if rents are starting to moderate. They’re not necessarily falling, but not rising as quickly. And of course with interest rates coming down, ultimately the big kahuna here, mortgage interest costs, will recede as well.”

With the U.S. Federal Reserve set to meet on Wednesday, Janzen and Fan said they expect the American central bank to announce its first rate cut in four years.

“Gradual but persistent labour market softening and slowing inflation make it clear that current high interest rates are no longer needed,” they wrote.

“We think governor (Jerome) Powell’s comments will likely stay on the cautious side — hinting at future rate cuts without committing to a pre-determined path to allow for more flexibility in future decisions.”

—With files from Nojoud Al Mallees in Ottawa

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.

By Craig Wong

The decision by the Bank of Canada to cut its key interest rate target this week was good news for borrowers with variable-rate mortgages, bringing back some of the shine for the once popular loans.

The rate cut prompted big commercial banks to lower their prime rates, which are used to set the rates charged for variable-rate mortgages.

Toma Sojonky, a mortgage broker at Verico Paragon Mortgage Group in West Vancouver, B.C., says variable-rate mortgages are beginning to regain some traction with clients after falling out of favour when the rate-hiking cycle began.

“I think there are folks who understand that the pendulum is swinging the other way,” he said.

Those with a variable-rate mortgage have had a wild ride since the start of the pandemic.

When the Bank of Canada cut interest rates to nearly zero in the spring of 2020, those with variable-rate mortgages saw the rates charged on their loans fall too, helping fuel their popularity.

But the reverse was also true. When the central bank started rapidly raising rates in 2022 in an effort to bring inflation under control, those with variable-rate loans saw their costs march higher in lockstep. The increase in rates meant either higher payments or less principal being repaid on the loans.

Borrowers who saw the interest rates charged on their loans more than double saw their monthly payments increase by hundreds of dollars or the amortization period of their loans extended by years.

The popularity of variable-rate loans plunged.

But the economy has shifted once more and the central bank has cut interest rates three times this year so far and suggested more cuts were coming.

In announcing the rate cut Wednesday, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said if inflation continues to ease broadly in line with the bank’s July forecast, it is reasonable to expect further cuts in the policy rate.

Julie Leduc, a mortgage broker at Mortgage Brokers Ottawa, said clients with variable-rate loans were not happy when rates were rising, but the cycle is turning.

“We’ve lived the worst of it, we’re on our way out,” she said.

“So let’s look for the benefits and the benefit is, if they go variable and the rates go down, they’re going to live the benefit.”

Right now, the rates offered to those looking for a new variable-rate mortgage or needing to renew are higher than those being offered for five-year fixed rate mortgages, something that Leduc called an anomaly.

That’s because the expectations are that the Bank of Canada will continue to cut interest rates, lowering the amount charged to borrowers in the future. If something unexpected happens and the central bank doesn’t cut rates, then the rates charged on variable-rate mortgages won’t go down.

But if things continue to roll out as expected, those choosing variable-rate loans will see the amount they are charged go down. Just how much and how quickly will depend on the central bank.

Sojonky says the discounts lenders offer to the prime rate for variable-rate mortgages are also improving.

“Previously in the winter or last fall, we saw discounts to prime as low as 0.15 to 0.3, whereas now we are beginning to enjoy discounts to prime that are approaching one per cent again,” he said.

Leduc says variable-rate mortgages also have the advantage of being less costly to break than their fixed-rate counterparts if you need to get out of one before the term is up.

The penalty for variable-rate loans is typically three months of interest, while a fixed rate closed mortgage penalty is typically the greater of three months of interest or what is called the interest rate differential amount, which is often much greater.

Leduc says none of her clients expect to break their mortgages before the end of their term but in reality, about half of them end up doing so.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 5, 2024.

This article was published on Canadian Mortgage Trends.

Despite rising affordability challenges, the majority of young Canadians still view homeownership as a valuable investment, according to a recent Royal LePage survey.

A full 84% of Canadians aged 18 to 34 said homeownership is a worthwhile investment, with even higher percentages in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (94%) and Atlantic Canada (93%).

Of those who don’t currently own a home, 74% said purchasing a home is a priority for them.

“It is not surprising that young buyer hopefuls see immense benefits in home ownership,” said Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper.

However, with high home prices and elevated interest rates, many feel it is increasingly out of reach. Just 54% of those who prioritize homeownership said they believe it’s an achievable goal, with another 26% saying they’re unsure.

“The youngest cohort of homebuyers in Canada have no shortage of barriers on their path to ownership,” Soper added. “Though the cost of borrowing has begun to come down, chronic supply shortages have kept housing prices from dropping, even as demand softened under the weight of high interest rates.”

The survey highlights that 60% of young Canadians who don’t currently own a home plan to purchase one within the next five years. However, financial barriers remain a significant hurdle, with nearly two-thirds citing down payments as the biggest obstacle to homeownership. Despite these challenges, many young Canadians are willing to make sacrifices, such as relocating to more affordable areas or reducing non-essential spending, to achieve their goal of owning a home.

Interestingly, the desire for homeownership among young Canadians is driven by a strong belief in the long-term financial benefits of owning property. Nearly three-quarters of respondents view homeownership as a solid investment, particularly as a means of building wealth over time. This perspective aligns with the broader Canadian belief that real estate is a secure and appreciating asset, even amid market fluctuations.

However, the report also points out the growing frustration among young buyers, many of whom feel priced out of their desired markets. This has led to increased interest in alternative living arrangements, such as co-ownership or purchasing smaller properties. Some young Canadians are also delaying their homebuying plans in hopes that market conditions will eventually improve.

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

The federal government has added 56 properties to a new public lands bank of locations that are suitable for long-term leases so developers can build housing, a move the Housing Minister says will help boost the supply of homes Canadians can afford.

Sean Fraser made the announcement Sunday in Halifax just ahead of a three-day cabinet retreat intended to prepare for the upcoming fall sitting of Parliament.

“Making public lands available for home construction is going to reduce the cost of construction and in turn reduce the cost of living,” Fraser said.

Former military bases, Canada Post sites and federal office buildings are among the properties currently included in the public lands bank, many of which were previously set aside for sale as they are no longer in use.

The new plan is to offer most of them for long-term lease rather than one-time sale to keep the lands in public hands and ensure housing built on them remains affordable.

The current list includes properties in 28 municipalities in seven provinces but will grow over time through an ongoing review of underused or vacant federal land and buildings.

Five properties — first identified in the April budget — are now moving into the development phase with the government asking developers for expressions of interest or requests for proposals.

Four of them are on former military bases in Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto and Ottawa, while the fifth is the site of a former National Film Board building in Montreal.

Conservative housing critic Scott Aitchison dismissed the latest plan as a repeat of something the Liberals have been promising to do since 2015. The Tories pointed out both the 2015 Liberal platform and the 2017 federal budget promised an inventory of public lands to make more properties available for affordable housing.

“It took nine years after he promised to build homes on federal land for Justin Trudeau to actually identify the few parcels of land he would build on,” Aitchison said.

In a video statement shared to social media, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took a shot at Pierre Poillievre over the use of federal land, saying “the Conservative Party leader wants to sell it all off to make a quick buck. That does nothing for you.”

The Conservative housing plan involves the sale of 15 per cent of all federal buildings to be turned into homes.

Fraser said construction of housing on the first five properties could begin in the first half of 2025.

Housing will be a key issue at the cabinet retreat as Canadians continue to grapple with high costs and limited availability.

The annual end-of-summer cabinet session comes three weeks before Parliament returns for the fall sitting and is likely the last such event for this cabinet before the next election.

It may be the last real chance this government has to reset itself with voters before asking them for another mandate.

The next election has to be held by October 2025 but could happen any time before then. The cabinet will get an update on the status of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s supply and confidence agreement with NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

That deal has helped the Liberals survive all confidence votes since 2022 with the NDP’s help, in exchange for the Liberals implementing NDP priorities including dental care and the start of a national pharmacare program.

That deal is supposed to last until next spring but the NDP are under more pressure to walk away from it, particularly following the Liberal’s move last week to ask the Canada Industrial Relations Board to begin binding arbitration between the Teamsters union and the country’s two big national railway companies. Both Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) locked out workers on Thursday at midnight amid stalled contract negotiations with thousands of employees represented by Teamsters. All freight trains and some commuter traffic came to a standstill during the ensuing work stoppage.

Trains are supposed to be returning to more normal schedules Monday but it will take time to restore normal service. The Teamsters union has also vowed to fight the decision in court, and president Paul Boucher said Sunday he was en route to Halifax with other labour leaders to “protest this decision at the Liberal caucus retreat.”

The dispute is the latest in a string of supply-chain and labour issues the Liberals have or continue to face, including at ports, railways and airlines.

Post-Covid-19 supply chain disruptions contributed heavily to high inflation that has also led to an affordability crunch in Canada and many places around the world.

Canada’s housing crisis — driven by high interest rates and rapid immigration that exceeds housing supply growth — has added to the affordability crisis with average home prices and rents rising sharply in the last five years.

Last year’s cabinet retreat in Charlottetown had a heavy focus on housing, but the Liberals left that session without anything concrete to announce. Their poll numbers continued to suffer as they failed to convince Canadians they have the recipe to fix a problem that has become critical under their watch.

They announced the broad strokes of their new housing plan in April, including new protections for tenants, loans to build more apartments and a spate of programs to massively expand the number of affordable units available.

Former Liberal chief of staff Marci Surkes, now the chief strategy officer at government relations firm Compass Rose, said housing will be central to this retreat and the Liberal agenda going forward.

“Frankly the government has certainly made significant policy moves and investments since last year and some of them are beginning to bear fruit, but the reality is that the focus on supply needs to remain in place,” she said. “There is no real relief yet.”

The government intends to spur construction of 3.87 million new housing units in the next seven years.

It’s estimated between 3.1 million and 3.5 million new units are needed by 2031.

This retreat is also expected to see the government discuss immigration and temporary foreign workers, industrial strategies including for the electric vehicle market, child care and Canada-U.S. relations.

The meetings start on Sunday evening with a working dinner and a discussion about global issues with Jake Sullivan, national security advisor to the U.S. government.

Two full days of meetings will follow. Monday will see cabinet hear from experts and advisers on housing, immigration and middle class economics. They will include Kevin Lee, CEO of the Canadian Home Builders’ Association, Sen. Hassan Yussuff, the former president of the Canadian Labour Congress, and Maya Roy, the former CEO of the YWCA Canada.

Tuesday’s discussions will shift to Canada-U.S. relations, with the upcoming presidential election holding major significance for Canada which relies heavily on U.S. trade for its economic stability. Canada’s U.S. Ambassador Kirsten Hillman will address the cabinet Tuesday, as will former ambassadors Frank McKenna and David MacNaughton.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 25, 2024.

Falling mortgage rates haven’t yet had a a significant impact on real estate activity, according to recent data.

National home sales in July were down 0.7% from the previous month, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported today. While activity remains 4.8% higher compared to a year ago, sales are still down roughly 9% below their pre-pandemic level.

Slow sales have led to a build in available inventory, with 183,450 properties listed for sale as of the end of July. CREA says that’s up 22.7% from a year ago, though still 10% below the historical average.

The sales-to-new-listings ratio continued to ease in the month to 52.7% from 53.5% in June, which put some downward pressure on average prices in certain markets. The non-seasonally adjusted average national home price of $667,317 is down 4% from June and mostly unchanged from a year ago.

The MLS Home Price Index (HPI), which adjusts for seasonality, edged up 0.2% month-over-month but remains 3.9% lower compared to last year.

“Stability describes the Canadian housing market as we push through the heat of summer,” noted BMO’s Robert Kavcic. “Sales volumes are holding steady at reasonable levels, listing flow is solid but not saturating the market (with an exception or two), and prices are steady across most markets.”

Regionally, Alberta’s housing market remains relatively tight, though there has been a notable softening. Sellers’ markets continue to thrive across the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, thanks to affordability and significant inward migration, Kavcic added.

Vancouver and Montreal are largely balanced and have posted strong price performance over the past year. Conversely, Ontario shows more signs of weakness, with various areas experiencing buyers’ markets.

“Vancouver and Montreal look mostly balanced, and are posting better-than-average price performance over the past year,” he wrote. “Ontario remains the soft spot, with buyers’ markets still scattered across various areas of the province.”

Stage set for higher home sales later this year

While sales remained subdued last month, activity is expected to pick up over the remainder of the year with interest rates expected to continue their downward trajectory.

“We view July’s result as a speed bump on the way to a stronger second half showing for sales and prices amid a resilient economy, robust population growth, and falling rates,” wrote TD’s Rishi Sondhi. “August’s data will be telling, given that rates have continued their decline into this month.”

CREA chair James Mabey added that the “stage is increasingly being set” for a return to a more active housing market.

“At this point, many markets have a healthier amount of choice for buyers than has been the case in recent years, but the days of the slower and more relaxed house hunting experience may be somewhat numbered,” he said.

BMO’s Kavcic notes that the ongoing subdued sales were “entirely expected” since the recent Bank of Canada rate cuts have so far only provided relief to a limited number of borrowers.

“Few Canadians were using variable [mortgages], so the early phase of rate cuts wasn’t going to provide much relief,” he explained.

As of the first quarter, 12.9% of new mortgage borrowers opted for a variable-rate mortgage, according to figures from the Bank of Canada.

“Now, with the bond market building in more aggressive near-term easing in both the U.S. and Canada, fixed mortgage rates could continue to drift down,” Kavcic continued, adding that if we head into the next spring housing market with mortgage rates at around the 4% level, “things could get more interesting.”

“For now, the market remains very stable,” he said.

Cross-country roundup of home prices

Here’s a look at select provincial and municipal average house prices as of July.

*Some of the movements in the table above may be somewhat misleading since average prices simply take the total dollar value of sales in a month and divide it by the total number of units sold. The MLS Home Price Index, on the other hand, accounts for differences in house type and size and adjusts for seasonality.

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by: