This article is from the Canadian Mortgage Trends website: https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2023/06/another-week-another-rise-in-fixed-mortgage-rates-how-much-higher-could-they-go/

Another week and another round of fixed rate hikes have swept Canada’s mortgage market.

Mortgage lenders, including most of the big banks, have continued to hike their fixed mortgage rates following the recent surge in Government of Canada bond yields, which are used to price fixed-rate mortgages.

Several big banks, including BMO, CIBC and RBC, have hiked their posted rates by 15 to 40 basis points over the past week (one basis point is equivalent to 1/100th of a percentage point, or 0.01%).

Some of the biggest moves were seen in shorter 1- and 2-yr terms, according to data from MortgageLogic.news. Among national mortgage providers, average deep-discount rates for a 1-year term are now up to 6.25% (from 5.99% a week ago). And among the big banks, posted 2-year rates are up by about the same amount, averaging nearly 6.40% now.

Ron Butler of Butler Mortgage points out that bond yields are now up by over 100 basis points, or a full percentage point, from their March lows.

In previous weeks, rates with a 4-handle—that is, those in the 4% range—have largely disappeared. But the latest rounds of rate hikes are taking many fixed rates well into 6% and 7% territory.

Asked if 5-handle rates could be next to dry up, Butler said borrowers can expect 1- and 2-year rates in the 6% range, while 3- and 5-year rates should stay in the 5% range “for the time being.”

He adds that clients are continuing to express interest in both two and three-year terms.

Will rates continue to increase next week?

Given the surge in bond yields, Butler suspects lenders and brokerages will continue to raise fixed rates next week, potentially by as much as 30 bps.

And now that the 5-year yield has broken 3.60%, a key threshold, it still has its sights on the next important level of 4.00%, says Ryan Sims, a TMG The Mortgage Group broker and former investment banker.

“If we see a large drop today on the close, I think a lot of lenders will hold, but if we close up or even flat today, and next week is the same, then I think we could see some further fixed rate increases,” he told CMT.

“If we see the Canada 5-year bond hit the magical 4.00%, there is not a lot of resistance between 4.00% and 5.00%,” he added. “It’s not my prediction at all, but if we hit 4%, hold the 4%, and get any little bit of inflationary news, then it will be rocket fuel to the yield.”

Michael Gregory, Deputy Chief Economist at BMO Economics, notes that 2-year yields are up 43 bps from May’s average so far and are “poised to become the highest monthly mark in almost 15 years.”

He said the increase reflects “the prospects for a higher terminal policy rate and a ‘higher-for-longer’ theme to subsequent easing (presuming the economy steers clear of a deep recession).”

“Meanwhile, on both sides of the border, we look for the yield curve (2s-10s) to reach peak inversion for the cycle (on a monthly average basis) within the next month or two,” he added.

What’s driving the rate hikes?

The increase in Canadian bond yields came following recent rate hikes by other world central banks, as well as a rise in U.S. Treasury yields that came in response to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Testifying before U.S. lawmakers, Powell suggested more policy tightening will be needed. At a separate event, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said “additional policy rate increases” would be needed to bring inflation under control.

Last week, Powell also said that rate cuts would only be considered by the Fed once inflation comes down significantly. “It will be appropriate to cut rates at such time as inflation is coming down really significantly, and again, we’re talking about a couple years out,” he said.

U.S. markets are now pricing in a higher chance of two additional FOMC rate hikes this year., and any moves south of the border inevitably have an impact on Canadian interest rates.

This week also saw rate hikes by the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England and Norges Bank. The latter two surprised markets with larger-than-expected increases of 50 bps.

Taken all together, the latest rate commentary and central bank moves have heightened market concerns about global inflation as well as the economic impact of higher-than-expected policy rates.

The latest Bank of Canada rate forecasts

Those with a variable rate are also expected to feel more pain from rising rates, potentially as soon as the Bank of Canada‘s next policy meeting on July 12.

Markets are pricing in a nearly 70% chance of an additional quarter-point rate hike next month, with those odds rising to 100% by September. All eyes will be on May inflation and employment figures, which could sway the BoC decision either way.

The following are the latest interest rate and bond yield forecasts from the Big 6 banks, with any changes from their previous forecasts in parenthesis.

The Bank of Canada holds rates steady again but maintains its commitment to 2% inflation

The Bank of Canada left the overnight policy rate at 4.5%, as expected, stating their view that inflation will hit 3% by mid-year and reach the 2% target by next year. They admit, however, that demand continues to exceed supply, wage gains are too high, and labour markets are still very tight. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

“Economic growth in the first quarter looks to be stronger than was projected in January, with a bounce in exports and solid consumption growth. While the Bank’s Business Outlook Survey suggests acute labour shortages are starting to ease, wage growth is still elevated relative to productivity growth. Strong population gains are adding to labour supply and supporting employment growth while also boosting aggregate consumption. Housing market activity remains subdued.”

The Bank expects consumption spending to moderate this year “as more households renew their mortgages at higher rates and restrictive monetary policy works its way through the economy more broadly.”

“Overall, GDP growth is projected to be weak through the remainder of this year before strengthening gradually next year. This implies the economy will move into excess supply in the second half of this year. The Bank now projects Canada’s economy to grow by 1.4% this year and 1.3% in 2024 before picking up to 2.5% in 2025”.

Most economists believe the Bank of Canada will hold the overnight rate at 4.5% for the remainder of this year and begin cutting interest rates in 2024. A few even think that rate cuts will begin late this year.

In contrast, the Fed hiked the overnight fed funds rate by 25 bps on March 22 despite the banking crisis and the expectation that credit conditions would tighten. This morning, the US released its March CPI report showing inflation has fallen to 5% year-over-year. Next Tuesday, April 18, Canada will do the same. The base year effect has depressed y/y inflation. Canada’s CPI will likely have a four-handle.

Fed officials next meet in early May, and it is widely expected that the Fed will continue to raise the policy rate while the Bank will continue the pause.

Due to the differences in our mortgage markets and the higher debt-to-income level in Canada, our economy is much more interest-sensitive. Despite these disparate expectations, the Canadian dollar has held up relatively well.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada upgraded its growth projections for this year in a new forecast, suggesting the odds of a soft landing have increased. This may preclude interest rate cuts this year.

“Governing Council continues to assess whether monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to relieve price pressures and remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target,” the bank said.

The April Monetary Policy Report suggests strong Q1 growth resulted from substantial immigration. With the population proliferating, labour shortages should continue to decline, and inflation will fall to 3% later this year. The global growth backdrop is better than expected, though the Bank continues to look for a slowdown in the coming months, citing the lagged effects of rate hikes and the recent banking sector strains.

Governor Macklem said in the press conference that the economy needs cooler growth to corral inflation, although the Bank’s forecast does not include an outright recession.

The Bank will refrain from cutting rates this year. The Governor explicitly said at the press conference that market pricing of rate cuts later this year is not the most likely scenario.

The Bank of Canada holds rates steady even as the Fed promises to push higher

As expected, the central bank held the overnight rate at 4.5%, ending, for now, the eight consecutive rate increases over the past year. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. This is the first pause among major central banks.

Economic growth ground to a halt in the fourth quarter of 2022, lower than the Bank projected. “With consumption, government spending and net exports all increasing, the weaker-than-expected GDP was largely because of a sizeable slowdown in inventory investment.” The surge in interest rates has markedly slowed housing activity. “Restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on household spending, and business investment has weakened alongside slowing domestic and foreign demand.”

In contrast, the labour market remains very tight. “Employment growth has been surprisingly strong, the unemployment rate remains near historic lows, and job vacancies are elevated.” Wages continue to grow at 4%-to-5%, while productivity has declined.

“Inflation eased to 5.9% in January, reflecting lower price increases for energy, durable goods and some services. Price increases for food and shelter remain high, causing continued hardship for Canadians.” With weak economic growth for the next few quarters, the Bank of Canada expects pressure in product and labour markets to ease. The central bank believes this should moderate wage growth and increase competitive pressures, making it more difficult for businesses to pass on higher costs to consumers.

In sum, the statement suggests the Bank of Canada sees the economy evolving as expected in its January forecasts. “Overall, the latest data remains in line with the Bank’s expectation that CPI inflation will come down to around 3% in the middle of this year,” policymakers said.

However, year-over-year measures of core inflation ticked down to about 5%, and 3-month measures are around 3½%. Both will need to come down further, as will short-term inflation expectations, to return inflation to the 2% target.

Today’s press release says, “Governing Council will continue to assess economic developments and the impact of past interest rate increases and is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.”

Most economists believe the Bank of Canada will hold the overnight rate at 4.5% for the remainder of this year and begin cutting interest rates in 2024. A few even think that rate cuts will begin late this year.

In Congressional testimony yesterday and today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed might need to hike interest rates to higher levels and leave them there longer than the market expects. Today’s news of the Bank of Canada pause triggered a further dip in the Canadian dollar (see charts below).

Fed officials next meet on March 21-22, when they will update quarterly economic forecasts. In December, they saw rates peaking around 5.1% this year. Investors upped their bets that the Fed could raise interest rates by 50 basis points when it gathers later this month instead of continuing the quarter-point pace from the previous meeting. They also saw the Fed taking rates higher, projecting that the Fed’s policy benchmark will peak at around 5.6% this year.

Bottom Line

The widening divergence between the Bank of Canada and the Fed will trigger further declines in the Canadian dollar. This, in and of itself, raises the Canadian prices of commodities and imports from the US. This ups the ante for the Bank of Canada.

The Bank is scheduled to make its next announcement on the policy rate on April 12, just days before OSFI announces its next move to tighten mortgage-related regulations on federally supervised financial institutions.

To be sure, the Canadian economy is more interest-rate sensitive than the US.  Nevertheless, as Powell said, “Inflation is coming down, but it’s very high. Some part of the high inflation that we are experiencing is very likely related to a very tight labour market.”

If that is true for the US, it is likely true for Canada. I do not expect any rate cuts in Canada this year, and the jury is still out on whether the peak policy rate this cycle will be 4.5%.

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 4½%, with the Bank Rate at 4¾% and the deposit rate at 4½%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global inflation remains high and broad-based. Inflation is coming down in many countries, largely reflecting lower energy prices as well as improvements in global supply chains. In the United States and Europe, economies are slowing but proving more resilient than was expected at the time of the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). China’s abrupt lifting of COVID-19 restrictions has prompted an upward revision to the growth forecast for China and poses an upside risk to commodity prices. Russia’s war on Ukraine remains a significant source of uncertainty. Financial conditions remain restrictive but have eased since October, and the Canadian dollar has been relatively stable against the US dollar.

The Bank estimates the global economy grew by about 3½% in 2022, and will slow to about 2% in 2023 and 2½% in 2024. This projection is slightly higher than October’s.

In Canada, recent economic growth has been stronger than expected and the economy remains in excess demand. Labour markets are still tight: the unemployment rate is near historic lows and businesses are reporting ongoing difficulty finding workers. However, there is growing evidence that restrictive monetary policy is slowing activity, especially household spending. Consumption growth has moderated from the first half of 2022 and housing market activity has declined substantially. As the effects of interest rate increases continue to work through the economy, spending on consumer services and business investment are expected to slow. Meanwhile, weaker foreign demand will likely weigh on exports. This overall slowdown in activity will allow supply to catch up with demand.

The Bank estimates Canada’s economy grew by 3.6% in 2022, slightly stronger than was projected in October. Growth is expected to stall through the middle of 2023, picking up later in the year. The Bank expects GDP growth of about 1% in 2023 and about 2% in 2024, little changed from the October outlook.

Inflation has declined from 8.1% in June to 6.3% in December, reflecting lower gasoline prices and, more recently, moderating prices for durable goods. Despite this progress, Canadians are still feeling the hardship of high inflation in their essential household expenses, with persistent price increases for food and shelter. Short-term inflation expectations remain elevated. Year-over-year measures of core inflation are still around 5%, but 3-month measures of core inflation have come down, suggesting that core inflation has peaked.

Inflation is projected to come down significantly this year. Lower energy prices, improvements in global supply conditions, and the effects of higher interest rates on demand are expected to bring CPI inflation down to around 3% in the middle of this year and back to the 2% target in 2024.

With persistent excess demand putting continued upward pressure on many prices, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate by a further 25 basis points. The Bank’s ongoing program of quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of the policy rate. If economic developments evolve broadly in line with the MPR outlook, Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases. Governing Council is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target, and remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 8, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on April 12, 2023.

Source of this article is: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/01/fad-press-release-2023-01-25/

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 4¼%, with the Bank Rate at 4½% and the deposit rate at 4¼%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Inflation around the world remains high and broadly based. Global economic growth is slowing, although it is proving more resilient than was expected at the time of the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy is weakening but consumption continues to be solid and the labour market remains overheated. The gradual easing of global supply bottlenecks continues, although further progress could be disrupted by geopolitical events.

In Canada, GDP growth in the third quarter was stronger than expected, and the economy continued to operate in excess demand. Canada’s labour market remains tight, with unemployment near historic lows. While commodity exports have been strong, there is growing evidence that tighter monetary policy is restraining domestic demand: consumption moderated in the third quarter, and housing market activity continues to decline. Overall, the data since the October MPR support the Bank’s outlook that growth will essentially stall through the end of this year and the first half of next year.

CPI inflation remained at 6.9% in October, with many of the goods and services Canadians regularly buy showing large price increases. Measures of core inflation remain around 5%. Three-month rates of change in core inflation have come down, an early indicator that price pressures may be losing momentum. However, inflation is still too high and short-term inflation expectations remain elevated. The longer that consumers and businesses expect inflation to be above the target, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched.

Looking ahead, Governing Council will be considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target. Governing Council continues to assess how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving, and how inflation and inflation expectations are responding. Quantitative tightening is complementing increases in the policy rate. We are resolute in our commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target and restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 25, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.

This article is from the Bank of Canada website: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/12/fad-press-release-2022-12-07/