26 Feb

A variable-rate mortgage could save borrowers over $6,000 on their next term: BMO

Latest News

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

Variable mortgage rates are looking increasingly attractive compared to fixed rates, with the potential for significant savings, according to new research from BMO Economics.

With additional Bank of Canada rate cuts expected this year, the bank argues that variable-rate mortgages could offer borrowers more savings over the long run.

“With borrowing costs more likely to fall than rise—and by a lot in a possible trade war—a floating rate mortgage could pay off,” writes senior BMO economist Sal Guatieri.

While current variable mortgage rates are roughly on par with—or slightly higher than—5-year fixed rates, Guatieri notes they’re “unlikely to stay there.”

How variable rates are priced

Unlike fixed mortgage rates, which are influenced by bond yields, variable rates are tied to lenders’ prime lending rates.

These, in turn, follow the Bank of Canada’s overnight policy rate, which currently sits at 3.00%. The current prime rate offered by major lenders is 5.20%, meaning most variable rates are currently priced at a discount off the prime rate.

Most economists expect the Bank of Canada to continue cutting rates this year, in addition to the six consecutive rate cuts the Bank delivered last year. That means lenders’ prime rates should follow suit—bringing down borrowing costs for variable-rate mortgage holders.

Where rates are headed

BMO’s latest forecast sees the Bank of Canada’s policy rate falling to 2.50% by later this year, or potentially down to 1.50% in the event of a full-fledged trade war with the U.S. (See full story here). Under the base-case scenario, this would likely push the prime rate below 4.50%, meaning today’s variable-rate borrowers could see meaningful savings.

Other big banks generally share this outlook, with CIBC, National Bank, and TD all expecting the BoC policy rate to drop to 2.25% by year-end, while RBC is even more aggressive, forecasting a fall to 2.00%.

BoC policy rate forecasts from the Big 6 banks

Current Policy Rate: Policy Rate:
Q1 ’25
Policy Rate:
Q2 ’25
Policy Rate:
Q3 ’25
Policy Rate:
Q4 ’25
Policy Rate:
Q4 ’26
BMO 3.00% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.50%* 2.50%
CIBC 3.00% 2.75% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25%
NATIONAL BANK 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% 2.25% 2.75%
RBC 3.00% 2.75% 2.25% 2.00% 2.00%
SCOTIABANK 3.00% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75%
TD 3.00% 2.75% (-25bps) 2.25% (-50bps) 2.25% (-25bps) 2.25% 2.25%
* Assumes no U.S. tariffs. Expected policy rate of 1.50% in the event of tariffs.
Updated: February 24, 2025

More borrowers are turning to variable rates

Origination share by mortgage type
Courtesy: Edge Realty Analytics

With variable rates looking more appealing, more borrowers are already reconsidering their mortgage options.

Data from the Bank of Canada shows that as of November, nearly a quarter of new mortgages were variable-rate—up from less than 10% earlier in the year.

Mortgage broker Ron Butler told Canadian Mortgage Trends previously that this trend has only accelerated in recent months, noting that the share of variable mortgages he’s originating has jumped from 7% last year to 40% today.

Why BMO thinks it’s a smart bet

BMO argues that with rate cuts ahead, borrowers choosing variable rates today are positioning themselves for lower payments in the near future.

“We estimate a borrower putting 10% down on a half-million-dollar home financed over 25 years would save an average of 40 bps per year compared with locking in for five years,” he wrote. “That equates to just over $100 per month or more than $6,000 in five years.”

Canadian Mortgages Fix or Float

In the event that a trade war with the U.S. “torpedoes the economy,” Guatieri says the savings could be even greater, with variable-rate borrowers saving an additional 29 bps on average over the 5-year term—or an extra $74 per month.”

Another benefit, Guatieri notes, is that that variable-rate borrowers still have the flexibility to lock in if rates unexpectedly start to rise.

While there’s always a degree of uncertainty, Guatieri believes the bigger risk is locking into a fixed rate and missing out on potential savings.

Weighing the risks and alternatives

While BMO’s forecast aligns with market expectations for 50 bps in rate cuts this year, Guatieri acknowledges that there’s no guarantee the Bank of Canada will ease further.

“Should the Bank stand pat on rates, locking in could pay off moderately,” he wrote. “Furthermore, the economy could strengthen materially if a trade war is averted, causing inflation to reheat and the Bank to unwind some rate cuts. In this case, a fixed rate would clearly be the better choice.”

For risk-averse borrowers, a shorter-term fixed rate could be a middle ground.

Three-year fixed rates are currently slightly lower than five-year rates and provide the flexibility to refinance sooner at a potentially lower variable rate. According to BMO, this approach could save borrowers about 20 bps per year over five years compared to locking in for the full five years today.

“While that’s still 20 bps higher than opting for a variable rate today, the extra cost may be worth paying to hedge against potential rate increases,” Guatieri added.

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

Steve Huebl

Steve Huebl is a graduate of Ryerson University’s School of Journalism and has been with Canadian Mortgage Trends and reporting on the mortgage industry since 2009. His past work experience includes The Toronto Star, The Calgary Herald, the Sarnia Observer and Canadian Economic Press. Born and raised in Toronto, he now calls Montreal home.

18 Feb

Bank of Canada’s March rate cut odds drop to 30% after latest inflation data

Latest News

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

Canada’s inflation report for January has led to a sharp decline in the chances of the Bank of Canada cutting rates in March.

Canada’s headline inflation rate rose by 1.9% year-over-year in January, a slight increase from December’s 1.8% and in line with expectations.

 

The increase in headline CPI was largely driven by higher energy prices, notably gasoline (+8.6%) and natural gas (+4.8%).

The Goods and Services Tax (GST) holiday, which ran from mid-December to mid-February, provided some relief. This temporary measure helped reduce prices for food purchased at restaurants (-5.1% y/y), alcoholic beverages (-3.6% y/y), and toys, games, and hobby supplies (-6.8% y/y).

Core inflation measures, which are closely monitored by the Bank of Canada, showed a more mixed picture. CPI excluding food and energy remained stable at 2.2% y/y, but the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of CPI excluding food and energy slowed to 1.6% in January from 4% in December.

However, the Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures, CPI-Trim and CPI-Median, both edged higher to 2.7% y/y, signalling that underlying inflation pressures remain. Moreover, the three-month annualized trend of core inflation has been tracking above 3%, suggesting that core inflation “could continue to rise in the coming months “should continue to grind higher,” noted TD economist James Orlando.

Impact on Bank of Canada rate cut expectations

Following today’s release, market odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Bank of Canada’s March 12 policy meeting dropped to under 30%.

“There is too much underlying inflationary pressure in Canada to warrant an inflation-targeting central bank easing monetary policy further,” wrote Scotiabank‘s Derek Holt.

“The state of the job market also does not merit further easing,” he added, referencing January’s higher-than-expected job growth. “Canadian inflation remains too warm for the Bank of Canada to continue easing.”

However, economists remain divided on the Bank of Canada’s next move. Some, like Oxford Economics, still expect the Bank to continue cutting rates in the months ahead.

“The Bank of Canada will be in a bind as it weighs competing concerns over higher prices from the tariffs with the drag on economic growth,” noted Tony Stillo, Director of Canada Economics at Oxford.

“We believe the BoC will look through the temporary price shock and instead focus on the negative implications for the Canadian economy and heightened trade policy uncertainty, leaving it on track to lower the policy rate another 75bps to 2.25% by June 2025,” he added.

TD’s Orlando also underscored the challenge the Bank of Canada faces in balancing competing priorities.

“Does it weigh the downside risks to the economy in the face of U.S. tariffs, or does it focus on recent economic strength and the impact this is having on inflation?” he questioned, while acknowledging that much can change between now and the next BoC policy meeting.

“There is plenty of time between now and March 12, and if the President’s first few weeks are anything to go by, a lot could change before then,” he added.

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:
Steve Huebl

Steve Huebl is a graduate of Ryerson University’s School of Journalism and has been with Canadian Mortgage Trends and reporting on the mortgage industry since 2009. His past work experience includes The Toronto Star, The Calgary Herald, the Sarnia Observer and Canadian Economic Press. Born and raised in Toronto, he now calls Montreal home.

14 Feb

Fixed vs. variable: Why variable-rate mortgages are making a comeback

Latest News

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

After the Bank of Canada’s latest rate reduction 5-year variable mortgage rates are now on par with their fixed-rate counterparts, raising the question: Is now the time to go variable?

With additional Bank of Canada rate cuts expected, variable-rate mortgages are becoming an increasingly attractive option.

But choosing flexibility comes with its challenges—borrowers must weigh potential savings against heightened market volatility and the growing uncertainty surrounding a possible trade war with the U.S.

Ron Butler of Butler Mortgages told Canadian Mortgage Trends that this is the most volatile time he’s seen in the bond market “in forever.”

“It’s literally like 2008, during the Global Financial Crisis, it’s so wild,” he said.

Butler notes that the Canadian 5-year bond yield, which typically leads fixed-mortgage rate pricing, fell from a high of 3.85% in April to 2.64% last week, a significant change in such a short period of time. As a result, following six consecutive Bank of Canada rate cuts, 5-year variable rates are now nearly on par with fixed equivalents.

Clients opting for variable rates in droves

Look past the volatility—and the threat of devastating U.S. tariffs —and variable rates present a compelling case.

Markets are still pricing in at least two more quarter-point Bank of Canada cuts this year, which could push variable mortgage rates down at least another 50 basis points.

Interest rates expected to fall

Some forecast even more aggressive rate-cut action will be required to counter the ecnoomic shock of a trade war with the U.S.

“I don’t think it’s a stretch to believe that the Bank will reduce its policy rate from its current level of 3.00% down to at least 2% during the current rate cycle,” David Larock of Integrated Mortgage Planners said in a recent blog.

However, he cautions that there is also the risk that rate hikes come back into play should inflationary pressures re-emerge.

“While I expect variable rates to outperform today’s fixed-rate options, I caution anyone choosing a 5-year variable rate today to do so only if they are prepared for a rate rise at some point over their term,” Larock added. “Five years is long enough for the next rate cycle to begin, and for variable rates to rise from wherever they bottom out over the near term.”

Still, it’s a risk more and more borrowers are willing to take. Data from the Bank of Canada shows that as of November, nearly a quarter of new mortgages were variable-rate, up from less than 10% earlier in the year.

Butler says this trend has only accelerated in recent months, noting that the share of variable mortgages he’s originating has surged from 7% last year to 40% now.

“We advise clients to take variable because we now have actual reporting from marketplace analysts that it will go down,” he says. “The fee benefit of variable is a guaranteed penalty amount; you just don’t know what penalty you’re really going to get with fixed.”

Unlike fixed-rate mortgages, which often come with interest rate differential (IRD) penalties that can amount to tens of thousands of dollars, variable-rate mortgages typically carry a much smaller penalty—just three months’ interest—making them a more flexible option for borrowers who may need to break their mortgage early.

 

Butler argues that if tariffs are imposed, their impact on the mortgage market won’t be immediate, as inflation would primarily rise due to retaliatory counter-tariffs. This lag, he says, could give variable-rate borrowers a window to switch to a fixed rate before higher inflation forces the Bank of Canada to reverse course and hike rates.

“This kind of trade war means that in the beginning, the economy deteriorates, and interest rates go down; it takes nine months or a year for the inflation to really lock into a point where the Bank has to raise rates,” he says. “The inflation spiral takes time. The Bank of Canada will cut long before costs start to increase.”

Tracy Valko of Valko Financial, however, suggests that in such a trade war inflation becomes secondary to more immediate economic indicators, like unemployment. That, she warns, could skyrocket following a tariff announcement as companies brace for impact.

“‘Inflation’ was the word last year; this year I think it will be ‘employment,’ because tariffs will drive unemployment, and people won’t be able to afford housing, which will put a lot of pressure on the government infrastructure,” she says. “I don’t think it will be like inflation, which is a lagging indicator, because businesses will have to adjust quite quickly, and we could see massive unemployment in certain sectors.”

Even Trump’s latest tariff threat on aluminum and steel imports could have devastating impacts on Canadian workers in those industries within days.

Valko adds that high unemployment would potentially drive interest rates down faster—potentially even triggering an emergency rate cut, as National Bank had suggested—to blunt the effects of high tariffs. That potential scenario, Valko says, adds to the variable rate argument, but also adds to the widespread feeling of uncertainty in the market.

“A lot of people are really pessimistic right now on the future; we’ve had clients and homeowners that have had a lot of shocks in the mortgage market and the real estate market, and are not interested in having any more instability,” she says. “People are more educated than they’ve ever been before, so they are really looking at their financing—which is great to see—but people are very cautious, so to take variable, it has to be a very risk-tolerant client.”

Rate options for the more risk-averse borrowers

Valko notes that borrowers wary of economic uncertainty are increasingly choosing shorter-term fixed rates, offering stability without locking in for the long haul.

“Three-year fixed has been probably the most popular because it’s not taking that higher rate for the traditional five-year fixed rate term,” she says. “They’re hoping in three years we’ll see a more normalized and balanced market.”

For more cautious borrowers, hybrid mortgages—which split the loan between fixed and variable rates—are another option and are currently available through most major financial institutions.

“There are some people that are in the middle of that risk tolerance, and if they could put a portion in fixed and a portion in variable—and to be able to adjust it quickly—I think it would be a really good option,” Valko says.

Butler, however, disagrees.

“A hybrid mortgage means you are always half wrong about mortgage rates,” he says. “If the balance of probability clearly indicates variable is the correct short-term answer, take variable and carefully monitor the movement of fixed rates.”

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

Jared Lindzon

Jared Lindzon is a freelance journalist and public speaker based in Toronto. He is a regular contributor to the Globe & Mail, Fast Company and TIME Magazine, and has been published in The New York Times, Rolling Stone, The Guardian, Fortune Magazine, and many more.

29 Jan

The Bank of Canada Cuts The Overnight Rate By 25 Bps

Latest News

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced the overnight rate by 25 basis points this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 3.0%. The market had anticipated a nearly 98% chance of this 25 basis point reduction, and consensus aligned with this expectation. The Federal Reserve is also set to announce its rate decision this afternoon, where it is widely expected to maintain the current policy rate. As a result, the gap between the US Federal Funds rate and the BoC’s overnight rate has widened to 150 basis points. This discrepancy is largely attributed to stronger growth and inflation in the US compared to Canada. Consequently, Canada’s relatively low interest rates have negatively impacted the Canadian dollar, which has fallen to 69.2 cents against the US dollar. Additionally, oil prices have dropped by five dollars, now at US$73.61.

The Bank also announced its plan to conclude the normalization of its balance sheet by ending quantitative tightening. It will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually to stabilize and modestly grow its balance sheet in alignment with economic growth.

The projections in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) released today are marked by more-than-usual uncertainty due to the rapidly evolving policy landscape, particularly the potential threat of trade tariffs from the new administration in the United States. Given the unpredictable scope and duration of a possible trade conflict, this MPR provides a baseline forecast without accounting for new tariffs.

According to the MPR projections, the global economy is expected to grow by about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States has been revised upward, mainly due to stronger consumption. However, growth in the euro area is likely to remain subdued as the region faces competitiveness challenges. In China, recent policy actions are expected to boost demand and support near-term growth, although structural challenges persist. Since October, financial conditions have diverged across countries, with US bond yields rising due to strong growth and persistent inflation, while yields in Canada have decreased slightly.

The BoC press release states, “In Canada, past cuts to interest rates have begun to stimulate the economy. The recent increase in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains lackluster. The outlook for exports is improving, supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.

Canada’s labor market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months after a prolonged period of stagnation in the labor force. Wage pressures, previously sticky, are showing some signs of easing.

The Bank forecasts GDP growth to strengthen in 2025. However, with slower population growth due to reduced immigration targets, both GDP and potential growth will be more moderate than previously anticipated in October. Following a growth rate of 1.3% in 2024, the Bank now projects GDP to grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, slightly exceeding potential growth. As a result, excess supply in the economy is expected to be gradually absorbed over the projection horizon.

CPI inflation remains close to the 2% target, though with some volatility stemming from the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on select consumer products. Shelter price inflation remains elevated but is gradually easing, as anticipated. A broad range of indicators, including surveys on inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among CPI components, suggests that underlying inflation is near the 2% target. The Bank forecasts that CPI inflation will remain around this target over the next two years.

Aside from the potential US tariffs, the risks surrounding the outlook appear reasonably balanced. However, as noted in the MPR, a prolonged trade conflict would most likely result in weaker GDP growth and increased prices in Canada.

With inflation around 2% and the economy in a state of excess supply, the Governing Council has decided to further reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points to 3%. This marks a substantial (200 bps) cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June. Lower interest rates are expected to boost household spending, and the outlook published today suggests that the economy will gradually strengthen while inflation remains close to the target. Nevertheless, significant and widespread tariffs could challenge the resilience of Canada’s economy. The Bank will closely monitor developments and assess their implications for economic activity, inflation, and monetary policy in Canada. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.Nevertheless, significant and widespread tariffs could challenge the resilience of Canada’s economy. The Bank will closely monitor developments and assess their implications for economic activity, inflation, and monetary policy in Canada. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.

Bottom Line

The central bank dropped its guidance on further adjustments to borrowing costs as US President Donald Trump’s tariff threat clouded the outlook.

Bonds surged as the market absorbed the central bank’s decision not to guide future rate moves. The yield on Canada’s two-year notes slid some four basis points to 2.79%, the lowest since 2022. The loonie maintained the day’s losses against the US dollar.

In prepared remarks, Macklem said while “monetary policy has worked to restore price stability,” a broad-based trade conflict would “badly hurt” economic activity but that the higher cost of goods “will put direct upward pressure on inflation.”

“With a single instrument — our policy rate — we can’t lean against weaker output and higher inflation at the same time,” Macklem said, adding the central bank would need to “carefully assess” the downward pressure on inflation and weigh that against the upward pressure on inflation from “higher input prices and supply chain disruptions.”

In the accompanying monetary policy report, the central bank lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2025 due to the federal government’s lower immigration targets. The bank expects the economy to expand by 1.8% in 2025 and 2026, down from 2.1 and 2.3% in previous projections. The central bank trimmed business investment and exports estimates but boosted its consumption forecast.

The bank estimated that interest rate divergence with the Federal Reserve was responsible for about 1% of the depreciation in the Canadian dollar since October.

We expect the BoC to continue cutting the policy rate in 25-bps increments until it reaches 2.5% this Spring, triggering continued strengthening in the Canadian housing market.

Please Note: The source of this article is from SherryCooper.com/category/articles/
28 Jan

Experts bet on sixth straight Bank of Canada rate cut this week

Interest Rates

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

Economists and markets expect a 25-basis-point rate cut this week, bringing the Bank of Canada’s policy rate to a two-year low of 3%.

This cut, which would be the BoC’s sixth in a row since its policy rate reached a peak of 5%, is already largely priced into the market.

If it happens, the prime rate will drop to 5.20% (and TD’s mortgage prime a smidge higher at 5.35%), offering yet more relief to borrowers with variable-rate mortgages.

Bond markets are currently pricing in about an 83% chance of a quarter-point rate cut this week—coincidentally, not far off the results from CMT’s unofficial BoC rate-cut poll running on LinkedIn.

While this decision is widely expected, future rate cuts are going to become a little more tricky to predict.

The Bank of Canada is likely to adopt a more neutral stance in the coming months, particularly with increasing geopolitical risks and uncertainties around U.S. tariffs. At the same time, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to slow the pace of its own rate cuts, which could influence Canada’s future policy direction.

It’s worth noting that Scotiabank is the only major forecaster suggesting the BoC “should pass” on a rate cut this week. However, Derek Holt, VP and Head of Capital Markets at Scotiabank, acknowledges that the central bank “may as well take the easy route in what’s priced in.”

Here’s a look at what some economists and analysts are saying…

On the size of this and future rate cuts:

  • TD Economics: “Despite the tax cut driven dip in headline inflation, core inflation pressures have picked up over the past three months, suggesting that inflation readings are likely to move up a bit in the months ahead. This will give the Bank of Canada reason to adopt a more gradual pace of interest rate cuts this year. We expect a quarter point cut at every other decision in 2025.”
  • BMO: “We expect the Bank of Canada to next move in March, but we can’t rule out a January action. By September, with the policy rate at 2.50% and having fallen into the bottom half of the estimated neutral range, we expect the Bank to pause indefinitely.”
  • Desjardins: “With the inauguration of President Donald Trump…downside risks to the economy abound, not least from the threat of a 25% tariff being introduced on February 1. This economic uncertainty reinforces our call the next rate cut [this week] is likely to be a modest 25 basis points, and that subsequent rate reductions should be of a similar magnitude.”
  • CIBC: “Canada’s inflation data is only going to get harder to dissect in January, with the full month impact from the GST/HST tax break taking hold. Any news on the tariff front will also muddy the picture for inflation ahead. However, through the volatility it still appears that core price pressures are low enough, and the economy weak enough, to justify a 25bp reduction in interest rates from the Bank of Canada [this] week.”

On the impact of U.S. tariffs:

  • National Bank: “Rates will likely come down further if tariffs are applied, but the more uncertain question is how much they’ll need to fall. Given the high degree of uncertainty, this is a question Governing Council won’t be willing to answer but they may feel comfortable explaining the rate path would be pointed lower in this scenario…What might that look like? While obviously speculative, we can envision a ‘two-tiered’ easing cycle whereby the BoC cuts to around 2% while inflation temporarily spikes and then eases more after it passes, and the economy is left battered.”
  • RBC Economics: “Tariffs represent a complicated setup for central banks. They tend to increase costs (inflationary), but they also weaken an economy (deflationary). Most central banks have been clear that they are less likely to respond to inflation directly generated from tariffs, because they increase the price once, and then no longer contribute to year-over-year inflationary pressures. However, the follow on impact of rising inflation driven by a drop in demand could be more damaging. How the Bank of Canada will respond to this environment is not clear, but it has implications for other sectors like housing that could provide an offset from further interest rate cuts.”

Current policy rate & bond yield forecasts from the Big 6 banks

Current Policy Rate: Policy Rate:
Q1 ’25
Policy Rate:
Q4 ’25
Policy Rate:
Q4 ’26
5-Year Bond Yield:
Q4 ‘25
5-Year Bond Yield:
Q4 ‘26
BMO 3.25% 3.00% 2.50% 2.80%
CIBC 3.25% 2.75% 2.25% 2.25% NA NA
National Bank 3.25% 2.75% 2.25% 2.75% 2.50% 2.85%
RBC 3.25% 2.75% 2.00% 2.45% 2.45%
Scotiabank 3.25% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.50% 3.50%
TD 3.25% 3.00% 2.25% 2.25% 2.75% 2.75%

Updated: January 27, 2025

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

Steve Huebl

Steve Huebl is a graduate of Ryerson University’s School of Journalism and has been with Canadian Mortgage Trends and reporting on the mortgage industry since 2009. His past work experience includes The Toronto Star, The Calgary Herald, the Sarnia Observer and Canadian Economic Press. Born and raised in Toronto, he now calls Montreal home.

9 Dec

Bond market bets on 50-bps Bank of Canada rate cut next week after rise in unemployment

Interest Rates

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

Observers say that if there’s one economic indicator likely to be concerning Bank of Canada officials, it’s the higher-than-expected rise in Canada’s unemployment rate last month.”

According to the latest figures from Statistics Canada, the unemployment rate rose to 6.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from October and 0.2 percentage points higher than expected.

 

Excluding the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, this marks the highest unemployment rate Canada has seen in nearly eight years.

“If there is one indicator that will stress the Bank of Canada, this would be the one,” wrote BMO’s Chief Economist, Douglas Porter.

In response to the sharp rise in the unemployment rate, BMO has revised its Bank of Canada rate cut forecast to expect a 50-basis-point cut at the BoC’s December 11 meeting.

It’s a call shared by Oxford Economics. “With slack continuing to build in the labour market, GDP growing at a soft below-potential pace, and inflation at the 2% target, we expect the Bank of Canada will push ahead with another 50bp rate cut next week,” wrote economist Michael Davenport.

Bond markets are now pricing in 75% odds that the Bank of Canada will deliver a second consecutive “oversized” rate cut next week, bringing the policy rate down to 3.25%—its lowest level since September 2022.

This would also result in a prime rate of 5.45%, further lowering interest costs for variable-rate mortgage holders and those with personal or home equity lines of credit.

However, Porter cautioned that there’s still a case for a more moderate 25-basis-point cut.

“Domestic demand is clearly reviving, core inflation picked up last report, the Fed is proceeding more cautiously, and the currency is pushing 20-year lows,” he noted. “But the Bank seems biased to ease quickly, and the high jobless rate provides them with a ready invitation.”

 

Echoing this, Desjardins is maintaining its call for a 25-basis-point cut, arguing that the rise in the unemployment rate ‘masks the strength under the hood’ of the Canadian economy.

“With outsized hiring in the month, CPI inflation having advanced by 2% or less in the three months to October, and Q4 2024 real GDP growth tracking in line with the BoC’s expectations, we remain of the view that the Bank will cut by 25-basis points next week,” wrote Randall Bartlett, Senior Director of Canadian Economics.

A dive into the November employment report

Although the economy added 50,000 net new jobs in November—54.2k full-time workers and a loss of 3.6k part-time positions—the growth fell short of keeping pace with the labour force participation rate.

StatCan reported that 138,000 people were actively seeking work, reflecting the rapid pace of population growth in the month. This marked the fastest pace of job seekers recorded outside of the pandemic years.

Oxford Economics - unemployment rate
Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

“Today’s jobs report had a lot of moving parts,” noted James Orlando of TD Economics. “Yes, the unemployment rate rose significantly, but this was due to a massive increase in the labour force rather than outright job losses.

The largest gains in employment were seen in wholesale/retail trade (+39,000), construction (+18,000), professional services (+17,000), education (+15,000), and accommodation/food services (+15,000). Declines were concentrated in manufacturing (-29,000), transportation/warehousing (-19,000), and natural resources (-6,300).

Regionally, job gains were highest in Alberta (+24,000), Quebec (+22,000) and Manitoba (+6,600), while remaining largely unchanged in the other provinces.

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

Steve Huebl

Steve Huebl is a graduate of Ryerson University’s School of Journalism and has been with Canadian Mortgage Trends and reporting on the mortgage industry since 2009. His past work experience includes The Toronto Star, The Calgary Herald, the Sarnia Observer and Canadian Economic Press. Born and raised in Toronto, he now calls Montreal home.

3 Dec

Why three big banks raised fixed mortgage rates despite falling bond yields

Latest News

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

Despite low bond yields, banks and other lenders are continuing to raise rates. We talked to several rate experts to understand why.
Bond yields have plunged over 30 basis points (0.30 percentage points) over the past two weeks.

As regular readers of Canadian Mortgage Trends know, bond yields typically influence fixed mortgage rate pricing. However, that’s not the case right now. Several lenders, including three of the Big 5 banks, have recently raised rates on some of their fixed-rate products.

CIBC, Royal Bank, and TD raised their 3-, 4-, and 5-year fixed rates by 15-35 bps last week, while RBC also increased its 5-year insured and uninsured variable rates by 10 bps.

And they weren’t alone. Many other lenders across the country have also raised fixed rates, with the biggest increases typically seen in the 3- to 5-year fixed terms. At the same time, others have been reducing select rates slightly.

Government of Canada 5-year bond yield – 2024
If yields are down, why are rates going up?
There is no single factor that drives rates; instead, they are influenced by a combination of market conditions, geopolitical events, domestic data, and the broader outlook for the future.

Mortgage broker and rate expert Dave Larock noted in his latest blog that the current rate changes are “counter-intuitive,” as lenders are “concluding a round of increases to their fixed mortgage rates in response to the previous bond-yield run-up.”

He’s referencing the jump in bond yields since early October, from a level of 2.75% up to a high of 3.31% on Nov. 21.

Larock added that the rate increases could be reversed in the coming week if bond yields remain at current levels or fall further. “That outcome is far from certain,” he cautions.

Rate expert Ryan Sims agrees that banks are being slow to adjust to the rise in yields in November. “Although the [increases] are done, they are still more elevated than they were,” he said. “If bond yields stay lower, or seem to find a happy resting spot, then I could see some rate wars starting up,” he continued.

He added that since more borrowers are opting for variable-rate mortgages, he suspects lenders “are going to have to sacrifice some spread on fixed rates to get people to bite.”

If too many clients opt for variable rates, “banks could quickly get offside on term matching,” Sims says.

Lenders face a risk if they have too many variable-rate mortgages because of potential mismatches between short-term liabilities and long-term assets. If interest rates rise, it can disrupt their profitability and lead to higher costs, especially if they haven’t properly balanced their portfolio.

That, Sims says, is why some lenders have been decreasing their variable rate discounts on prime even as prime keeps falling with each Bank of Canada rate cut.

Are Canada’s big banks pulling back on competition?
As we’ve reported previously, Canada’s Big 6 banks have been unusually competitive with their mortgage pricing this fall, a trend John Webster, former CEO of Scotia Mortgage Authority, called a “silly business” as the big banks strive to meet quarterly revenue targets.

At an appearance last month Webster said a “confluence of circumstances” had driven the big banks to be more competitive with their mortgage pricing. However, he also suggested that this was unsustainable and expected more rational pricing to return by the first quarter.

Could this be the start of more rational pricing from the big banks?

Ron Butler of Butler Mortgage said there’s an aspect of seasonality to the recent increases.

“It’s the time of year when all banks end mortgage marketing campaigns, so rates always go up in December,” he told Canadian Mortgage Trends.

However, he also echoed comments from Larock and Sims, noting that despite the recent drop in bond yields, 3- and 5-year yields remain higher than they were since October.

This article was written for Candian Mortgage Trends by:

Steve Huebl

Steve Huebl is a graduate of Ryerson University’s School of Journalism and has been with Canadian Mortgage Trends and reporting on the mortgage industry since 2009. His past work experience includes The Toronto Star, The Calgary Herald, the Sarnia Observer and Canadian Economic Press. Born and raised in Toronto, he now calls Montreal home.

4 Sep

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 4¼%

Latest News

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Ottawa, Ontario

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4¼%, with the Bank Rate at 4½% and the deposit rate at 4¼%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

The global economy expanded by about 2½% in the second quarter, consistent with projections in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, economic growth was stronger than expected, led by consumption, but the labour market has slowed. Euro-area growth has been boosted by tourism and other services, while manufacturing has been soft. Inflation in both regions continues to moderate. In China, weak domestic demand weighed on economic growth. Global financial conditions have eased further since July, with declines in bond yields. The Canadian dollar has appreciated modestly, largely reflecting a lower US dollar. Oil prices are lower than assumed in the July MPR.

In Canada, the economy grew by 2.1% in the second quarter, led by government spending and business investment. This was slightly stronger than forecast in July, but preliminary indicators suggest that economic activity was soft through June and July. The labour market continues to slow, with little change in employment in recent months. Wage growth, however, remains elevated relative to productivity.

As expected, inflation slowed further to 2.5% in July. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation averaged around 2 ½% and the share of components of the consumer price index growing above 3% is roughly at its historical norm. High shelter price inflation is still the biggest contributor to total inflation but is starting to slow. Inflation also remains elevated in some other services.

With continued easing in broad inflationary pressures, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy interest rate by a further 25 basis points. Excess supply in the economy continues to put downward pressure on inflation, while price increases in shelter and some other services are holding inflation up. Governing Council is carefully assessing these opposing forces on inflation. Monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 23, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.

Content Type(s)PressPress releases
This post was published on the Bank of Canada website
13 Aug

The Big Banks are slashing their interest rate forecasts

Interest Rates

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

The extreme volatility experienced in global financial markets over the past week is having an immediate impact on Canadian interest rate forecasts—they’re falling like autumn leaves in a gusty wind.

TD, CIBC and BMO have led the way with their revised forecasts, with all now expecting the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates faster and deeper over the next 16 months.

Just a couple of weeks ago we reported on CIBC and TD’s interest rate forecasts, which predicted an additional 175 basis points (1.75 percentage points) worth of Bank of Canada rate cuts by the end of 2025.

Well, both banks have updated those forecasts and are now predicting 200 bps (two percentage points) worth of easing by the end of 2025. This would bring the overnight target rate down to 2.50%, a level last seen in the fall of 2022.

Updated forecasts from RBC, NBC and Scotia in light of last week’s market volatility have not yet been released but are expected to include downward revisions to the Bank of Canada’s overnight target rate.

Current Target Rate: Target Rate:
Q4 ’24
Target Rate:
Q4 ’25
5-Year Bond Yield:
Q4 ’24
5-Year Bond Yield:
Q4 ‘25
BMO 4.50% 3.75% (-50bps) 3.00% (-100bps) 2.95%
(-35bps)
2.90%
(-25bps)
CIBC 4.50% 4.00% (-25bps) 2.50% (-25bps) NA NA
National Bank 4.50% 4.00% 3.00% 3.15% 3.00%
RBC 4.50% 4.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Scotiabank 4.50% 4.00% 3.25% 3.45% 3.50%
TD Bank 4.50% 3.75% (-50bps) 2.50% (-25bps) 2.95%
(-30 bps)
2.65%
(-5bps)

What’s going on with global financial markets?

The market turmoil began early in earnest on Friday and is being driven predominantly by events in Japan and the U.S.

In Japan, concerns arose due to a change in the Bank of Japan’s long-standing negative interest rate policy. On July 31, the central bank raised its short-term policy rate to 0.25%, its highest level in 15 years, from a range of 0-0.1%.

That led to an unwinding of the yen carry trade, where investors had borrowed yen at low rates to invest abroad. This rapid reversal triggered a sharp selloff in Japanese stocks, with the sell-off eventually spreading to global financial markets.

Meanwhile in the U.S., fears are mounting that the Federal Reserve’s high interest rates could send the economy into recession and that the central bank is being too slow to respond.

Recent weak employment data and disappointing earnings from major tech companies have increased expectations of imminent rate cuts, further contributing to market instability and a plunge in the U.S. 10-year Treasury.

And since Canadian market moves often take their lead from U.S. markets, Canadian bond yields also plummeted to two-year lows, leading to a fresh round of fixed mortgage rate cuts.

BoC growing more concerned about downside risks

And adding fuel to the fire, fresh insights from the Bank of Canada provided further confidence that rates are likely to drop steadily in the near term.

The summary of deliberations from the BoC’s July 24 monetary policy meeting revealed that the Bank is now growing more concerned about downside risks to the outlook as opposed to upside risks to inflation.

“The downside risks to inflation took on a greater importance in their deliberations than they had in prior meetings,” the summary reads, adding that the Governing Council is now placing “more emphasis on the symmetric nature of the inflation target.”

“Similar to the July Monetary Policy Report, the deliberations focused on downside risks to the consumer spending outlook, as a growing number of households renew mortgages at higher rates in 2025 and 2026 and labour market slack builds,” wrote Michael Davenport, economist with Oxford Economics.

“We share this concern and think that the wave of mortgage renewals and building job losses will cause consumers to cut discretionary spending in the near term. This should prevent a meaningful pick-up in consumer spending until the second half of 2025 and convince the BoC that more rate cuts are necessary,” he added.

But not all observers believe the debate over the outlook for Bank of Canada rate cuts is a “dichotomous contrast” between slashing rates in the face of a looming recession vs. no cutting at all. Instead, a more balanced approach is needed, argues Scotiabank’s Derek Holt.

“I’ve argued that easing is appropriate to re-balance the risks from significantly restrictive policy, but that the steps should be pursued carefully,” he wrote. “Cutting too fast and too aggressively with very dovish guidance risks resurrecting inflationary forces. The economy is resilient and inflation risk remains elevated, so be careful in crafting monetary policy.”

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

Steve Huebl

Steve Huebl is a graduate of Ryerson University’s School of Journalism and has been with Canadian Mortgage Trends and reporting on the mortgage industry since 2009. His past work experience includes The Toronto Star, The Calgary Herald, the Sarnia Observer and Canadian Economic Press. Born and raised in Toronto, he now calls Montreal home.

24 Jan

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening

Latest News

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global economic growth continues to slow, with inflation easing gradually across most economies. While growth in the United States has been stronger than expected, it is anticipated to slow in 2024, with weakening consumer spending and business investment. In the euro area, the economy looks to be in a mild contraction. In China, low consumer confidence and policy uncertainty will likely restrain activity. Meanwhile, oil prices are about $10 per barrel lower than was assumed in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have eased, largely reversing the tightening that occurred last autumn.

The Bank now forecasts global GDP growth of 2½% in 2024 and 2¾% in 2025, following 2023’s 3% pace. With softer growth this year, inflation rates in most advanced economies are expected to come down slowly, reaching central bank targets in 2025.

In Canada, the economy has stalled since the middle of 2023 and growth will likely remain close to zero through the first quarter of 2024. Consumers have pulled back their spending in response to higher prices and interest rates, and business investment has contracted. With weak growth, supply has caught up with demand and the economy now looks to be operating in modest excess supply. Labour market conditions have eased, with job vacancies returning to near pre-pandemic levels and new jobs being created at a slower rate than population growth. However, wages are still rising around 4% to 5%.

Economic growth is expected to strengthen gradually around the middle of 2024. In the second half of 2024, household spending will likely pick up and exports and business investment should get a boost from recovering foreign demand. Spending by governments contributes materially to growth through the year. Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 0.8% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, roughly unchanged from its October projection.

CPI inflation ended the year at 3.4%. Shelter costs remain the biggest contributor to above-target inflation. The Bank expects inflation to remain close to 3% during the first half of this year before gradually easing, returning to the 2% target in 2025. While the slowdown in demand is reducing price pressures in a broader number of CPI components and corporate pricing behaviour continues to normalize, core measures of inflation are not showing sustained declines.

Given the outlook, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate at 5% and to continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet. The Council is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation, particularly the persistence in underlying inflation. Governing Council wants to see further and sustained easing in core inflation and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 6, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on April 10, 2024.

 

This press release was published on the Bank of Canada website, CLICK HERE for the original article.