The rent-versus-buy debate has long divided financial experts and aspiring homeowners, with no clear winner in sight.

The traditional argument holds: While buying a home can build long-term equity and stability, renting can provide flexibility and fewer upfront costs. But as home ownership becomes a far-fetched dream for many young Canadians, can renting for life be a viable option?

Alex Avery, author of The Wealthy Renter, thinks so.

“It’s different for every person, and each individual’s needs change over time, but I’m still a firm believer that renting is a great option,” he said.

Despite rental prices having soared since publishing his book in 2016, Avery says renting is still cheaper and carries less risk than buying.

“People compare mortgage payments to monthly rental rates, but mortgage payments don’t begin to cover the full costs of home ownership,” he said. These costs can include notary fees, realtor commissions and region-specific taxes when purchasing the property as well as ongoing costs such as mortgage interest, property taxes, insurance, and various maintenance and repair expenses.

Avery was inspired to write his book during what he calls was a “speculative bubble” in the housing market at the time that he said created a perception of home ownership as an “easy out for savings,” especially in urban centres like Toronto and Vancouver.

“[Young Canadians] were being pressured to buy a condo when the math never made any sense,” he said.

Vancouver realtor Owen Bigland’s calculations paint a different picture however. With average monthly rent for a one-bedroom unit in his city now hovering around $2,800, a lifetime renter could spend at least $1.3 million by the time they’re 65 (not accounting for rent increases or inflation), according to Bigland.

“And you’ll have zero to show for it. Where’s the savings here?” he questioned.

Even if monthly rent was cheaper than a mortgage payment, Bigland said many Canadians will likely spend any savings rather than invest it and grow their wealth.

“A lot of Canadians don’t have the discipline to save as much as they should,” said Sebastien Betermier, an associate professor at McGill University who studies Canadian household spending.

With rents making up at least a third of household expenditures, and homes making up 70% to 80 % of homeowners’ wealth portfolios, Betermier says both renters and homeowners alike are exposing themselves to big risks.

Recent data from a survey by the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan and Abacus Data suggests the same. More than a third of Canadians report having less than $5,000 in savings, and those who own a home are increasingly relying on their home equity to fund their retirement.

Bigland preaches home ownership for this very reason. He encourages chipping away at your mortgage and building equity so you can benefit from any price appreciation in the future.

“The only real cash shelter we get in Canada is the principal residence exemption,” he said.

Put another way, “you’re essentially renting [the home] from yourself,” said Betermier. He adds that your home can act as collateral should you need to borrow against it someday. Most mortgages from big banks typically include a built-in home equity line of credit at a favourable rate, according to Bigland. “It’s accessible money without selling your home.”

Avery, however, doesn’t buy this argument.

“It presupposes that housing is a safer investment than other investments,” he said. “There are many places where house prices have gone down, where employment prospects change over time.”

As an alternative to relying on your home as an investment, Avery suggests putting your money into an RRSP, TFSA, and the FHSA which doesn’t necessarily need to go toward a home purchase. “You can learn about index ETFs too. There’s a lot of different ways to invest your money,” he said.

Avery, who’s gone the home ownership route himself, doesn’t think buying is a bad decision, but warns against it if you’re banking on it as an investment tool.

“That’s conflating two different objectives,” he said. “One is to house yourself, and the other is to generate wealth.”

But Bigland, who’s also written a book on real estate and stock investing, says you should be doing both. He agrees renting can make sense in some situations like if you’re anticipating a change in jobs, but you should consider buying if you can commit to a location for eight to 10 years.

He suggests first-time buyers start with older buildings close to public transit often sitting on valuable pieces of land. “You’ll probably have a developer [buy] in 10 or 15 years, and that might be your exit strategy,” he said. “Even if you’re a blue-collar guy, if you can get $40,000 down, maybe even forgo the car for a little while, you can do it.”

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by Cathy Miyagi.

Borrowers are caught in a mortgage rate market that changes by the week, with little sign of stability ahead.

With every passing week, the Bank of Canada faces conflicting economic signals, leaving Canadians guessing about its next move and triggering rapid changes in mortgage rates.

After several weeks with the lowest 5-year fixed rates holding above 4%, several lenders are now offering options in the high-3% range, generally for high-ratio borrowers.

“There was a two-month period where there were lots of rates available in the three’s … and then suddenly, everything headed for the fours over about a two-week period,” says Ron Butler of Butler Mortgage. “Then bond yields took a roughly 25 basis-point reduction, and now we’re back in this very aggressive state.”

Butler notes that while not every lender has followed suit, a number are again pricing select terms below 4% in the past few days, a trend that could just as easily swing back.

“Every single news item to do with interest rates, both here and in the United States, can trigger a change in bond yields and rates,” Butler says. “What we urge people to understand is that it is that volatile; rates can all go back into the fours very soon.”

Conflicting economic signals

The current volatility isn’t driven solely by the trade war and uncertainty over long-term policy, though both play a role.

According to rate expert Ryan Sims of TMG, the market is still trying to figure out how past changes to trade policies and leadership regimes are affecting both Canada and the United States.

“We’ve got two opposing forces right now and the bond market is reacting to every single report,” he says. “You’ve got inflation in Canada slowly creeping up bit by bit, but then you’ve also got the horrible jobs numbers we saw last week.”

High inflation typically pushes the Bank of Canada to raise rates, while weak employment and a slowing economy point to cuts. What’s unusual now is that both forces are appearing at once, Sims says.

Further complicating the matter is the American economic picture, which directly influences Canada’s 5-year bond yield, and with it, fixed mortgages. Though there are some cracks starting to form, the U.S. economy appears to be outpacing expectations.

“Whether you agree with the current administration or not, the data is coming in strong — employment is healthy, GDP is growing at a good clip, inflation is fairly malignant right now — so I don’t think you’ll get the rate cut from the U.S. Fed that everyone was banking on this year,” Sims explains. “It’s a lot harder for the Bank of Canada to cut when the U.S. Fed isn’t cutting.”

Even as the Bank of Canada shows little inclination to cut its policy rate, which drives the prime rate and variable borrowing costs, Canada’s big banks have been lowering mortgage rates after earlier hikes to win over renewers in a slow market.

Sims therefore advises clients to use this competitiveness to their advantage. “I’m telling clients to call their bank and say, ‘I’m working with a broker, I’m actively shopping, give me the best possible deal you can; you get one opportunity,’” he says.

The best options for borrowers right now

With the market shifting every few weeks and little clarity on its longer-term direction, experts advise borrowers to base decisions on their own risk profiles.

“I prefer the variable, and the only reason is because I have a free option to lock in at any point in time should I want to do that,” Sims says. “If I see that inflation is not letting down and I need to lock in, I can do that, but if I lock in now and rates plummet, I’m facing high [prepayment] penalties.”

The variable option, Sims adds, could offer more flexibility if Canadians face widespread job losses or economic stress in the coming years, challenges that may be tougher under a fixed mortgage.

However, Robert McLister, a mortgage strategist at MortgageLogic.news, cautions that only those prepared to monitor the markets closely and act quickly should consider a variable rate in today’s environment.

“Unless you’re bulletproof financially and need shorter-term penalty flexibility, go easy on variables,” he advises. “If you model out their performance using today’s rates and forward rate projections, their performance edge is limited for most people. Add in the real dangers of inflation and Ottawa’s fiscal mismanagement, and their appeal shrinks further.”

Instead, McLister recommends a fixed-rate mortgage of three or five years for most, or a hybrid option for those with a little bit more appetite for risk.

“Get a sufficiently long rate hold if you’re home shopping or refinancing,” he adds. “The point is: don’t bet the ranch on much more [interest rate] relief from here.”

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales in July rose 6.6% compared with a year ago, continuing an upward trend after the market had slowed in previous months.

A total of 45,973 homes changed hands last month, up from 43,122 in July 2024.

Home sales rose 3.8% on a month-over-month basis from June, with transactions up a cumulative 11.2% since March.

“With sales posting a fourth consecutive increase in July, and almost four per cent at that, the long-anticipated post-inflation crisis pickup in housing seems to have finally arrived,” said CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart in a press release.

“Looking ahead a little bit, it will be interesting to see how buyers react to the burst of new supply that typically shows up in the first half of September.”

The association said the bump in sales activity was led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area, where transactions have now rebounded a cumulative 35.5% since March.

TD economist Rishi Sondhi said “pent-up demand temporarily sidelined earlier in the year returned to markets with some force last month.”

“Indeed, it looks as though the sales recovery that should have happened earlier in the year after significant (interest) rate relief in 2024 was simply delayed some months,” he said in a note.

“Some reduction in economic uncertainty should bring back more buyers in B.C. and Ontario, while further Bank of Canada rate relief could offer modest stimulus in the back half of the year. However, barriers remain, such as stretched affordability in several provinces and a weaker job market.”

Meanwhile, new listings were up 0.1% month-over-month.

There were 202,500 properties listed for sale across Canada at the end of July, up 10.1% from a year earlier and in line with the long-term average for that time of the year.

The actual national average sale price of a home sold in July was $672,784, up 0.6% from a year ago.

CREA’s own home price index, which aims to represent the sale of typical homes, was unchanged between June and July 2025.

BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic said the housing market has looked “very balanced and stable” through the summer, with significant regional variation persisting.

“At the national level, sales have steadily climbed back toward longer-term norms, inventory is elevated but not overly saturating the market, and prices are effectively flat,” he said in a note.

“In markets where price corrections are ongoing, we seem to be getting closer to levels that are bringing some buyers off the sidelines.”

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by Sammy Hudes