24 Jan

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening

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Posted by: Dean Kimoto

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global economic growth continues to slow, with inflation easing gradually across most economies. While growth in the United States has been stronger than expected, it is anticipated to slow in 2024, with weakening consumer spending and business investment. In the euro area, the economy looks to be in a mild contraction. In China, low consumer confidence and policy uncertainty will likely restrain activity. Meanwhile, oil prices are about $10 per barrel lower than was assumed in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have eased, largely reversing the tightening that occurred last autumn.

The Bank now forecasts global GDP growth of 2½% in 2024 and 2¾% in 2025, following 2023’s 3% pace. With softer growth this year, inflation rates in most advanced economies are expected to come down slowly, reaching central bank targets in 2025.

In Canada, the economy has stalled since the middle of 2023 and growth will likely remain close to zero through the first quarter of 2024. Consumers have pulled back their spending in response to higher prices and interest rates, and business investment has contracted. With weak growth, supply has caught up with demand and the economy now looks to be operating in modest excess supply. Labour market conditions have eased, with job vacancies returning to near pre-pandemic levels and new jobs being created at a slower rate than population growth. However, wages are still rising around 4% to 5%.

Economic growth is expected to strengthen gradually around the middle of 2024. In the second half of 2024, household spending will likely pick up and exports and business investment should get a boost from recovering foreign demand. Spending by governments contributes materially to growth through the year. Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 0.8% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, roughly unchanged from its October projection.

CPI inflation ended the year at 3.4%. Shelter costs remain the biggest contributor to above-target inflation. The Bank expects inflation to remain close to 3% during the first half of this year before gradually easing, returning to the 2% target in 2025. While the slowdown in demand is reducing price pressures in a broader number of CPI components and corporate pricing behaviour continues to normalize, core measures of inflation are not showing sustained declines.

Given the outlook, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate at 5% and to continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet. The Council is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation, particularly the persistence in underlying inflation. Governing Council wants to see further and sustained easing in core inflation and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 6, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on April 10, 2024.

 

This press release was published on the Bank of Canada website, CLICK HERE for the original article.

19 Jan

Housing market sees late-year rebound despite 2023 being least active in over two decades

General

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

Home sales surged in most of Canada’s large metro areas in December, despite total 2023 activity being the slowest in over two decades.

In Toronto, for example, December sales were 11.5% higher compared to a year ago, while total 2023 sales were down over 12%. Calgary saw December sales surge nearly 14% year-over-year, while 2023 as a whole was down 8% from 2022.

And in Montreal, cumulative sales were down 14.3% from 2022, making 2023 the least active year for the city’s real estate market since 2000, according to economists from National Bank.

It was a similar story for average asking prices, which were up between 2% and 5% in most metro areas, but were down on average between 3% and 6% on a full-year average basis. Calgary once again stood out from other markets, where average prices were up over 10% in December and 6% higher in 2023 compared to 2022.

“High borrowing costs coupled with unrealistic federal mortgage qualification standards resulted in an unaffordable home ownership market for many households in 2023,” noted Jennifer Pearce, the incoming president of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). “With that said, relief seems to be on the horizon,” she added.

Lower interest rates could fuel a rebound in 2024

Analysts suggest ongoing demand by way of strong population growth in 2024 alongside falling interest rates could help support increased home sales this year.

Most economists are forecasting at least a full percentage point worth of rate cuts by the Bank of Canada in 2024. Meanwhile, fixed mortgage rates continue to fall thanks largely to lower bond yields, which is helping to easy qualification challenges for new homebuyers.

“Lower rates will help alleviate affordability issues for existing homeowners and those looking to enter the market,” TRREB president Paul Baron said.

“Activity is still quiet, but even a hint of a firmer demand/supply balance amid pending rate cuts could readily fire the sector back up again,” BMO chief economist Douglas Porter wrote in a research note.

Regional housing market roundup

Here’s a look at the December statistics from some of the country’s largest regional real estate boards:

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Greater Toronto Area

Toronto real estate market
December 2023 YoY % Change Full-year 2023 YoY % Change
Sales 3,444 +11.5% 65,982 -12.1%
Benchmark price (all housing types) $1,084,692 +3.2% $1,126,604 -5.4%
New listings 3,886 -6.6% NA NA
Active listings 10,370 +19.3% NA NA

“High borrowing costs coupled with unrealistic federal mortgage qualification standards resulted in an unaffordable home ownership market for many households in 2023. With that said, relief seems to be on the horizon,” said incoming TRREB president Jennifer Pearce. “Borrowing costs are expected to trend lower in 2024. Lower mortgage rates coupled with a relatively resilient economy should see a rebound in home sales this year.”

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)


Greater Vancouver Area

Vancouver housing market
December 2023 YoY % Change Full-year 2023 YoY % Change
Sales 1,345 +3.2% 26,249 -10.3%
Benchmark price (all housing types) $1,168,700 +5% $1,235,917 +1%
New listings 1,327 +9.9% NA NA
Active listings 8,802 +13% NA NA

“You could miss it by just looking at the year-end totals, but 2023 was a strong year for the Metro Vancouver housing market considering that mortgage rates were the highest they’ve been in over a decade,” said Andrew Lis, REBGV Director of Economics and Data Analytics.

“In our 2023 forecast, we called for modest price increases throughout the year while most other forecasters were predicting price declines,” he added.

Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV)


Montreal Census Metropolitan Area

Montreal housing market
December 2023 YoY % Change Full-year 2023 YoY % Change
Sales 2,096 -4% 36,184 -14.3%
Median Price (single-family detached) $535,000 +5% $541,000 -2%
Median Price (condo) $391,000 +4% $390,000 -1%
New listings 2,542 +12% NA NA
Active listings 15,907 +19% NA NA
Source: Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB)

“In the months ahead, activity is likely to remain limited on the Montreal housing market,
despite strong demographic growth, notably due to affordability conditions that will remain a major challenge,” economists from National Bank wrote.

Calgary

Calgary housing market
December 2023 YoY % Change Full-year 2023 YoY % Change
Sales 1,366 +13.8% 27,416 -8%
Benchmark price (all housing types) $570,100 +10.4% $556,975 +6%
New listings 1,248 +21% NA NA
Active listings 2,164 -2.5% NA NA

“Higher lending rates dampened housing demand this year, but thanks to strong migration levels, housing demand remained relatively strong, especially for affordable options in our market,” said CREB Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “At the same time, supply levels were low compared to the demand throughout the year, resulting in stronger than expected price growth.”

Source: Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB)


Ottawa

Ottawa housing market statistics
December 2023 YoY % Change Full-year 2023 YoY % Change
Sales 565 +7.6% 11,978 -11%
Benchmark price (all housing types) $632,487 +2.7% $667,794 -5.5%
New listings 523 -12.4% NA NA
Active listings 1,844 +3% NA NA

“Ottawa’s resale market closed out the year in a steady, balanced state,” said incoming OREB President Curtis Fillier. “This could be an early indication that consumer confidence is returning. We likely won’t see the full impact of rate stabilization until the second half of 2024, but December’s activity bodes well for a strong year ahead in Ottawa.”

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB)

15 Jan

How the Smith Manoeuvre can help mortgage brokers grow their business

General

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

For nearly four decades, Canadians have turned to an investment strategy of writing off the interest from mortgage payments as tax-deductible.

Known as the Smith Manoeuvre—after its creator, financial planner Fraser Smith—the strategy involves getting a readvanceable mortgage, which includes a line of credit.

After paying the mortgage every month, a homeowner then borrows the exact same amount of money under the line of credit, invests it, and reaps a refund after filing their income taxes.

The Smith Manoeuvre effectively takes advantage of a Canadian law that allows the debt from paying for a home to be invested in a source with the reasonable expectation of generating income, something that can then be written off an income tax statement.

Amid today’s 5% overnight interest rate, ever-rising real estate costs, and stubborn inflation, such a strategy sounds appealing.

This goes double for mortgage brokers. Ryan La Haye, mortgage broker at Group RLH – Planiprêt Mortgage Cabinet, says brokers need to think as strategically as possible about how to engage with clients. In an age when generative AI is catching up to humans, he says, helping clients with complex investment strategies like the Smith Manoeuvre can make brokers more relevant.

“If we don’t gravitate towards something that’s completely outside of simply helping you get your mortgage, finding you an approval, or giving you a great service,” La Haye says, “I don’t think that’s going to be enough.”

However, mortgage brokers looking to incorporate complex strategies like the Smith Manoeuvre into their offering to clients shouldn’t just go in guns blazing. There are a number of considerations brokers should make first.

Get accredited

The Smith Manoeuvre is actually trademarked by Fraser Smith, and mortgage brokers cannot simply say they know how to use it without taking an accreditation program.

La Haye, who is accredited, says brokers who use the term could face legal penalties for violating the trademark, although they haven’t gone after anyone just yet.

Ultimately, the Smith Manoeuvre is complicated. Clients need to understand how debt conversion works, how to pick the best mortgage lender to properly do the Smith Manoeuvre, and understand all of the ways to speed up tax rebates — known as ‘accelerators.’ It also means understanding the sorts of investments the Smith Manoeuvre cannot take advantage of, like RRSPs or TFSAs.

Having a broker who understands this process is critical, even if they aren’t following the exact methodology laid down by Fraser Smith. In fact, La Haye says, it is possible for brokers to offer their own version of the Smith Manoeuvre, so long as they don’t violate Smith Consulting Group’s trademark.

He compares it to the way fast-food chains continue to thrive despite the dominance of McDonald’s. “You can do hamburgers,” he says, “you just can’t call it a Big Mac.”

Understand—and prepare—your client

Not everyone will benefit from the Smith Manoeuvre.

La Haye describes it as a strategy that works best for potential homeowners who need additional cash and cannot generate more. This could mean someone who is paying for their family’s expenses, a car, a home, and isn’t able to leverage their salary or other income accordingly.

Perhaps most importantly, La Haye says, the Smith Manoeuvre isn’t a short-term bet. At minimum, he says, clients should be willing to look about 15 years out.

“Anyone who looks to implement this as a short-term strategy is very bad,” he says. “This is why we have an accreditation program to teach people, but it’s mis-implemented and mis-advised many, many times.”

For brokers, the Smith Manoeuvre isn’t just a financial service. La Haye says it acts as a conversation starter, even with non-ideal clients. It lets them know that you can provide them valuable help with strategies to reduce their mortgage payments, or otherwise generate income, in a way that an automated mortgage approval system or low-cost brokerage simply couldn’t.

“It’s not necessarily about implementing it,” La Haye says. “It’s more about showing that this is the sort of a service I offer.”

Work with other financial professionals

The Smith Manoeuvre and other complex financial strategies aren’t entirely within a mortgage broker’s purview. La Haye suggests mortgage brokers ensure any clients attempting the Smith Manoeuvre have an accountant, and ask to speak with them to ensure what’s going on.

He also says a financial planner to manage investments is essential, especially if they are independent rather than tied to a specific bank.

Ideally, any financial professionals who work on Smith Manoeuvre cases should be accredited. This doesn’t just apply to brokers.

La Haye says the accreditation program is also meant for financial planners, accountants, and realtors. If everyone works together, he says, it doesn’t just create a more valuable experience for a mortgage broker’s clients, it also raises revenue for everyone involved in the process.

“When people want to implement this manoeuvre, I suggest that they create their own team that’s all accredited,” La Haye says. “That way, the client’s not going to run into any problems and, at the same time, you’re creating a nice loop of partners that are going to be able to share clients and drive clients to each other.”

 

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

12 Jan

Even with expected rate cuts, mortgage payments will continue to rise for years: BoC research

General

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

Despite anticipated Bank of Canada interest rate cuts later this year, mortgage borrowers will continue to face higher debt-servicing costs for several years.

That’s according to a research report released by the Bank of Canada that did a deep-dive on mortgage debt and payments, taking into account some of the intricacies of the mortgage market, including the distribution of fixed vs. variable rates.

“Under a range of hypothetical policy rate scenarios, our model predicts that, even if rates begin to fall, the required payment rate on mortgage debt will continue to climb in the coming years,” the report’s authors, Fares Bounajm and Austin McWhirter, wrote.

“The impact of the tightening that began in early 2022 will continue to gradually materialize over the next few years,” they added. “Therefore, barring a sudden drop in the policy rate…debt-servicing costs will likely continue to climb for many households, exerting a drag on discretionary spending.”

The report delved into the complexities of understanding the full impacts monetary policy changes have on the mortgage market. The authors noted that most structural macroeconomic models “do not account for some of the intricacies of the mortgage market’s structure.”

While that’s generally not a problem when monetary policy changes are slow or infrequent, it results in “shortcomings” in situations where interest rate changes are very rapid and occur over an extended period, such as the current rate-hike cycle.

In these cases, researchers need to rely on “microsimulations initialized using detailed microdata on individual mortgages” to fully understand the timing of monetary policy pass-through, the authors say.

“For example, if the proportion of households holding variable payment mortgages increases, then monetary tightening will pass through to household finances more quickly,” they wrote. “And if long-term fixed contracts grow as a share of outstanding mortgage debt, rate increases may take longer to have their full impact on consumer spending.”

Monetary policy tightening reduces household debt in the long run

As part of the research, the report noted that, despite higher interest costs for borrowers in the short term, monetary policy tightening results in lower household debt over the long run.

Using the scenario of a temporary interest rate shock of 100 basis points to the policy rate, the result is first a drop in homebuying and demand for new loans.

“As a result, household debt also declines gradually,” the report reads. “The household debt-to-income ratio initially rises as income falls. However, the ratio falls below the model’s steady state after about eight quarters due to household deleveraging.”

“This suggests that monetary policy tightening reduces household indebtedness in the long run,” it concludes.

 

This article was written for Canadian Mortgage Trends by:

5 Jan

Canadian seniors are selling their homes later in life. What will this mean for the housing market?

General

Posted by: Dean Kimoto

A recent report has found Canadian seniors are choosing to age in their homes for longer, with many not selling their home until their 80s and 90s.

The findings were revealed in the Housing Market Insight Report by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), which explored some of the expected implications on housing supply in the coming years.

According to the CMHC, more seniors are potentially staying homeowners well into their later years because many are simply living longer, healthier lives and can handle the maintenance of a home.

The study, which focused on elderly Canadian households in the country’s six largest cities, also identified differences based on location. For example, households in Toronto and Vancouver are the most likely to transition to condominiums as they age, where in Montreal there’s a preference for moving to rental housing.

“In Canada, the financial wealth of elderly households may also vary from one urban centre to another,” says the CMHC in its report. “Affluent households may therefore be able to remain homeowners and purchase a home that meets their needs, rather than rent one.”

Canadian seniors are most likely to sell in their nineties

Canadian household census data show an estimated exponential sell rate trend amongst seniors from 2016 to 2021. Following consecutive cohorts over time, the data show a higher prevalence of significantly older seniors selling or giving up their homes compared to younger seniors.

CMHC defines the sell rate as the ratio of homeowners who sold their properties to the total number of homeowners for that particular demographic. For example, between 2016 and 2021, 100,500 homeowners aged 75 to 79 let go of their properties out of an initial total of 466,775 owner households, resulting in a sell rate of 21.5%.

CMHC adds that the sell rate for households aged 75 and above has been trending downward since the early 1990s, falling on average six percentage points in that time.

Based on these calculations, the data show most Canadians wait until they’re in their nineties to give up their home.

Cohorts that are approaching or in their 90s are expected to sell their homes and potentially open up additional housing supply to the market in the coming years.

“They might, for example, decide to rent private housing or, for health reasons, move into public housing (such as a care centre for seniors),” the CMHC report says. “Deaths are another factor that brings properties onto the market.”

What does this mean for Canadian housing availability?

While CMHC says it will still take a few years to have older seniors list their homes on the market, the result has the potential to eventually increase housing supply and subsequently narrow the affordability gap in Canada.

The result “seems to indicate that the number of units sold by elderly households might increase more rapidly once population aging in Canada is more advanced,” CMHC said. “In other words, when the number of households over age 85 grows larger.”

According to projections from Statistics Canada, population growth in the 85-and-over age group will rise more rapidly from 2030 to around 2040 due to the first baby boomer cohorts reaching this age group.

For now, it may be a waiting game to see if and when housing supply increases as expected.

“The big question is whether, in the coming decades, elderly households will follow in the footsteps of previous generations or go their own way,” says CMHC. “For example, will aging in place become more popular with seniors? Will the recent rise in rental housing starts in various CMAs across the country encourage more senior households to opt for renting?”

Until then, restoring housing affordability in Canada will largely depend on how senior household sales unfold in the near future.